Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Forecast: 9th to 13th March

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The Greenback found renewed strength as the US Dollar bulls start to resume another leg in the rally. Noticeably, the Greenback was the strongest across the board with the Swiss Franc and the Euro making up the tail end of the list.

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A better than expected jobs reports with US unemployment rate ticking lower to 5.5% coupled with a better than expected job growth has brought back the optimism for a June interest rate hike, which is clearly the main driver as far as the US Dollar’s rally is concerned. However, the Greenback does seem to be heading into some major resistance levels especially the 100 psychological level. At Friday’s close, the Dollar Index ended the week at 97.67.

Fundamentals for the Week 09 – 13 March

Date Time Currency   Forecast Previous
Mar-09 01:50 JPY Current Account 1.16T 0.98T
JPY Final GDP q/q 0.50% 0.60%
JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.50%
JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 2.30% 2.30%
02:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 1.30%
07:00 JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.7 45.6
09:00 EUR German Trade Balance 20.4B 21.8B
11:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 15.3 12.4
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
14:15 CAD Housing Starts 176K 187K
16:00 USD Labor Market Conditions Index m/m 4.9
Mar-10 01:50 JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.50% 3.40%
02:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.20%
02:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence 3
03:30 CNY CPI y/y 1.00% 0.80%
CNY PPI y/y -4.20% -4.30%
10th-13th NZD REINZ HPI m/m -1.00%
08:00 JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 20.40%
08:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.20% 3.10%
09:45 EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.20% 1.50%
11:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.20% 0.40%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
15:00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 99.2 97.9
16:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.04M 5.03M
USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.00% 0.10%
Mar-11 00:05 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
01:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 8.00%
01:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -3.90% 8.30%
JPY PPI y/y 0.50% 0.30%
02:30 AUD Home Loans m/m -1.90% 2.70%
07:30 CNY Industrial Production y/y 7.70% 7.90%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 15.10% 15.70%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 11.60% 11.90%
08:30 EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 0.00% 0.00%
11th-15th CNY New Loans 755B 1470B
11th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 11.10% 10.80%
11:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.20% 0.10%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.20%
16:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 10.3M
17:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.70%
19:01 USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.00|2.6
20:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -187.3B -17.5B
22:00 NZD Official Cash Rate 3.50% 3.50%
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
22:05 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
23:30 USD Bank Stress Test Results
23:45 NZD FPI m/m 1.30%
Mar-12 01:50 JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 5.7 8.1
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.60% -0.30%
02:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.00%
02:01 GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
GBP RICS House Price Balance 6% 7%
02:30 AUD Employment Change 15.3K -12.2K
AUD Unemployment Rate 6.40% 6.40%
07:00 JPY Consumer Confidence 39.9 39.1
09:00 EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.90% 0.90%
09:45 EUR French CPI m/m 0.60% -1.00%
11:30 GBP Trade Balance -9.7B -10.2B
12:00 EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 0.00%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.62|2.0
14:30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 83.70% 83.40%
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.60% -0.90%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.50% -0.80%
USD Unemployment Claims 317K 320K
USD Import Prices m/m 0.20% -2.80%
16:00 USD Business Inventories m/m 0.20% 0.10%
16:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
19:01 USD 30-y Bond Auction 2.56|2.3
23:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 50.9
Mar-13 06:30 JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 4.00% 4.00%
09:00 EUR German WPI m/m -0.20% -0.40%
11:30 GBP Construction Output m/m 1.40% 0.40%
14:30 CAD Employment Change 21.3K 35.4K
CAD Unemployment Rate 6.50% 6.60%
USD PPI m/m 0.20% -0.80%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.10% -0.10%
16:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 95.6 95.4
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.80%

 

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Japan GDP data: The Japanese Yen was relatively quiet for most part of the past few weeks. The week ahead will see the quarterly GDP data from Japan. After barely toeing the line into a technical recession few quarters ago, the GDP data will be important for the Yen. Expectations are for a 0.5% soft decline from 0.6% previously while on an annualized basis GDP is expected remain steady at 2.3%.

Australia Jobs report: With GDP showing a modest increase from 0.4% to 0.5%, the Australian employment data will be closely watched. While the RBA expects short term unemployment rate to rise, the markets will be focused on how much of a deviation to expect. Expectations are for a 6.4% unemployment rate to remain steady. Also on focus will be the home loans, which is likely to provide insight into the activity in the housing sector which has continued to grow on account of an easing conditions in the monetary policy.

Canada Jobs report: With the BoC standing pat on policy, the markets turn their attention to this Friday’s jobs report from the country. Expectations are for an improved unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.6%. With no other news releases for this week, the jobs data is likely to be a market mover for the Canadian cross currency rates.

RBNZ Monetary policy: With the RBA, BoC holding rates steady, markets tune up to the RBNZ. The central bank is expected to keep its rates on hold and markets would focus on the tone of the statement and forward guidance. Will the RBNZ continue to hike rates later this year or will the Central bank hold the rate hikes? The Kiwi has been trading in a tight range for the most part and the RBNZ event is likely to set the further direction this week.

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