The weekly forex forecast for 30 March – 3 April 2015 features the following fundamentals:
The US Dollar managed to hold its ground after declines from the week before. This week also saw a geo-political risk as Saudi Arabia started airstrikes against Yemen, which resulted in a flight to safety as investors bought up the safe havens, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.
Figure 1: Weekly Spot FX Performance – 27/03/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Commodity risk currencies obviously lost their footing this week with the Aussie and Kiwi dollars losing out to the safe haven currencies. The Canadian dollar which tracks Oil price movements also gave up its initial gains during the week as WTI Crude oil reversed its gains to post declines by late in the week.
Fundamentals for the Week 24 – 27 March
| Date | Time | Currency | Forecast | Previous | |
| 30-Mar | 01:50 | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -1.80% | 3.70% |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.40% | 0.90% | |
| 09:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 89.3 | 90.1 | |
| EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | -1.00% | -1.10% | ||
| 10:30 | GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 2.5B | 2.4B | |
| GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | -0.20% | -0.80% | ||
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 62K | 61K | ||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | 1.36|1.5 | ||
| 14:30 | CAD | RMPI m/m | 5.10% | -7.70% | |
| CAD | IPPI m/m | 0.60% | -0.40% | ||
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | ||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.30% | -0.20% | ||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.30% | 0.30% | ||
| 16:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 0.50% | 1.70% | |
| 23:45 | NZD | Building Consents m/m | -3.80% | ||
| 31-Mar | 01:05 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | 1 | 1 |
| 01:15 | USD | FOMC Member Fischer Speaks | |||
| 02:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | 1.80% | ||
| NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | 34.4 | |||
| 02:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.50% | 0.60% | |
| 03:30 | JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.70% | 1.30% | |
| 07:00 | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | -7.00% | -13.00% | |
| 08:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | -0.90% | 2.90% | |
| 08:45 | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.30% | 0.60% | |
| 09:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -10K | -20K | |
| 10:00 | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 12.50% | 12.60% | |
| 10:30 | GBP | Current Account | -21.2B | -27.0B | |
| GBP | Final GDP q/q | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
| GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.70% | 0.80% | ||
| GBP | Revised Business Investment q/q | -1.40% | -1.40% | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | -0.30% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.60% | 0.60% | ||
| EUR | Unemployment Rate | 11.20% | 11.20% | ||
| EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.30% | ||
| 14:00 | USD | FOMC Member Lacker Speaks | |||
| 14:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.20% | 0.30% | |
| 14:50 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
| 15:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 4.60% | 4.50% | |
| 15:45 | USD | Chicago PMI | 52.5 | 45.8 | |
| 16:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 96.6 | 96.4 | |
| 01-Apr | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 45.4 | |
| 01:50 | JPY | Tankan Manufacturing Index | 14 | 12 | |
| JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | 17 | 16 | ||
| 02:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | -3.70% | 7.90% | |
| 03:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 49.9 | |
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | |||
| 03:35 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 50.4 | |
| 03:45 | CNY | HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 49.2 | |
| 07:30 | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -20.60% | ||
| 09:15 | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | |
| 09:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 47.2 | 47.3 | |
| 09:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 52.3 | 51.9 | |
| 10:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.9 | |
| 10:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.1 | |
| 14:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 231K | 212K | |
| 15:00 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
| 15:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 55.3 | |
| 16:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | 52.9 | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | -0.10% | -1.10% | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 38.1 | 35 | ||
| 16:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 8.2M | ||
| USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | ||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -8.80% | ||
| All Day | USD | Total Vehicle Sales | 16.5M | 16.2M | |
| 02-Apr | 01:30 | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.00% | |
| 01:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 35.30% | 36.70% | |
| 02:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | 1.80% | ||
| 02:30 | AUD | Trade Balance | -1.25B | -0.98B | |
| 05:45 | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.40|2.8 | ||
| 2nd-7th | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | -0.30% | ||
| 10:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 60.4 | 60.1 | |
| Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | 0.67|1.5 | ||
| 13:30 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
| USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 20.90% | |||
| 14:30 | CAD | Trade Balance | -1.8B | -2.5B | |
| USD | Trade Balance | -41.5B | -41.8B | ||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 285K | 282K | ||
| 16:00 | USD | Factory Orders m/m | 0.00% | -0.20% | |
| 16:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 12B | ||
| All Day | NZD | Bank Holiday | |||
| All Day | AUD | Bank Holiday | |||
| 03-Apr | 03:45 | CNY | HSBC Services PMI | 52 | |
| All Day | CHF | Bank Holiday | |||
| All Day | EUR | German Bank Holiday | |||
| All Day | GBP | Bank Holiday | |||
| All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | |||
| 14:30 | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 251K | 295K | |
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.50% | 5.50% | ||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.10% |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
March Jobs Reports: Will the March jobs report post another stellar performance of will the labour market show signs of easing? Expectations are a bit inclined to the downside, with the March jobs expected to add 251k a bit lower compared to the expectations from the previous months. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 5.5%. With a low expectation, the markets will be poised to react adversely to the March jobs report, be it in beating expectations or falling below expectations.
Canada GDP: In his latest speech, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz sounded confident and a bit hawkish that there wouldn’t be any more rate cuts but noted that it would be data dependent. This week, the GDP data from Canada is due to be released, with consensus poised for a modest rise to 0.2%, down from 0.3% growth previously. Expect to see the GDP numbers being taken into consideration ahead of the BoC’s rate meeting during April.
Eurozone CPI: Inflation numbers are expected to be released this week across Germany, France, Italy and Spain, and expectations are for inflation numbers to be subdued. The lower expectations could definitely see some surprise risk to the upside.
UK Final GDP: The final GDP for the fourth quarter will be due this week and expectations are for a no change. It is very likely that the GDP won’t see any major revisions, but expect to see some volatility should the GDP see any revisions in either direction
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