A dovish FOMC and confused markets was what last week could be summed up as. While the FOMC meeting saw a selloff in the Greenback, markets recovered back to pre-FOMC levels on Thursday only to selloff on Friday. Adding to the pressure was also the fact that Friday, 20th March was a quadruple witching day which added a lot more volatility to the markets.
By the end of the week, the Greenback turned out to be the weakest currency across its peers, while the Kiwi dollar managed to take the top spot. The Euro single currency also managed to gain as much as 3.11%.
Fundamentals for the Week 24 – 27 March
| Date | Time | Currency | Forecast | Previous | |
| 23-Mar | 19:17 | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | 9 | 10 |
| Tentative | USD | Existing Home Sales | 4.91M | 4.82M | |
| 16:00 | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
| 16:30 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -6 | -7 | |
| 17:00 | USD | FOMC Member Fischer Speaks | |||
| 24-Mar | 18:20 | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.40% | |
| 01:00 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
| 03:15 | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | |
| 03:35 | CNY | HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.5 | 50.7 | |
| 03:45 | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.90% | ||
| 04:00 | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks | |||
| 06:50 | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 48.9 | 47.6 | |
| 10:00 | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 53.1 | 53.4 | |
| EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.1 | ||
| 10:30 | EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 55 | 54.7 | |
| EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | 51 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.9 | 53.7 | |
| GBP | CPI y/y | 0.10% | 0.30% | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | PPI Input m/m | 1.60% | -3.70% | |
| GBP | RPI y/y | 0.90% | 1.10% | ||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.30% | 1.40% | ||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 10.20% | 9.80% | ||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | -0.10% | -0.50% | ||
| USD | CPI m/m | 0.20% | -0.70% | ||
| 14:30 | USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.20% | |
| USD | HPI m/m | 0.50% | 0.80% | ||
| 15:00 | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 55.1 | |
| 16:00 | USD | New Home Sales | 472K | 481K | |
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 2 | 0 | ||
| NZD | Trade Balance | 355M | 56M | ||
| 25-Mar | 23:45 | JPY | SPPI y/y | 3.30% | 3.40% |
| 01:50 | AUD | RBA Financial Stability Review | |||
| 02:30 | CHF | UBS Consumption Indicator | 1.24 | ||
| 09:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 107.4 | 106.8 | |
| 11:00 | GBP | BBA Mortgage Approvals | 36.9K | 36.4K | |
| 11:30 | GBP | FPC Statement | |||
| USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | ||||
| 12:30 | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.40% | 0.00% | |
| 14:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.20% | 2.80% | |
| CHF | SNB Quarterly Bulletin | ||||
| 16:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 9.6M | ||
| 16:30 | CAD | Gov Council Member Lane Speaks | |||
| 26-Mar | 21:45 | EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| 09:00 | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 4.30% | 4.10% | |
| 11:00 | EUR | Private Loans y/y | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | -0.30% | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | CBI Realized Sales | 20 | 1 | |
| 13:00 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 295K | 291K | |
| 14:30 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
| 15:00 | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
| 15:30 | USD | Flash Services PMI | 57.2 | 57.1 | |
| 16:30 | CAD | Annual Budget Release | |||
| 27-Mar | 22:00 | JPY | Household Spending y/y | -3.10% | -5.10% |
| 01:30 | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 2.20% | 2.20% | |
| JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 2.10% | 2.20% | ||
| JPY | Unemployment Rate | 3.50% | 3.60% | ||
| JPY | Retail Sales y/y | -1.40% | -2.00% | ||
| 01:50 | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | 0.50% | -0.80% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.10% | -0.20% | |
| 12:00 | USD | FOMC Member Fischer Speaks | |||
| 12:30 | USD | Final GDP q/q | 2.40% | 2.20% | |
| 14:30 | USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| 16:00 | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 92.5 | 91.2 | |
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 3.00% | |||
| 21:45 | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
BoC could shed light on policy: This week, BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz will be speaking and the markets will be tuned in for any clues into the BoC’s next policy move. With Oil prices taking a further plunge, the BoC’s previous surprise rate cut, termed as ‘insurance’ seems to be playing out. But is it going according to plan? Canada will also be releasing its annual budget plan on Thursday.
Euro back to fundamentals? A Euro short squeeze seems to have been in play last week and as the new week dawns, the Euro single currency could be looking to the fundamentals as flash services and manufacturing PMI data is released. Of course, Greece will be on the top of the agenda as a meeting is scheduled with Germany this week.
UK looks to the CPI data: Will inflation stabilize or slump further? That is the question on everyone’s mind this week as the annual inflation rate will be released. Expectations call for a further slowdown in inflation to 0.1% on the headline while the core CPI is also expected to dip to 1.3%. With the BoE concerned about downward pressures on inflation, GBP crosses could be bracing up for some volatility this week.
US GDP Data and Yellen’s speech: With the Fed now making it clear any rate hike would be data dependent, markets will be closely monitoring the economic numbers from the US. This week, the US final GDP data will be released for the previous quarter and expectations are for a modest increase to 2.4%. US Consumer inflation is also on tap, which could move the markets. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking along with a host of other Fed speeches over the week which could bring added volatility or perhaps make things a bit more clear for the markets.
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