The single European currency is resting above the 1.0590 support level while giving the impression that during a period (probably short) it would prefer to stay in the area of 1.0600. This movement initially didn’t have an explanation, but it found the confirmation shortly after the good data was reported yesterday. German Final CPI was published in line with expectations at 0.9%, French CPI advanced by 0.7% and Weidmann reaffirmed that he opposes to the QE because the European economy recovers. Only the monthly Industrial Production gave a step back (-0.1%) compared with expectations (0.3%).
The US dollar got another reason to wander in front of its counterparties after the bank stress test results were reported in manageable parameters, the Unemployment Claims decreased to 289K and the Import Prices advanced to 0.4%. On the other side, the retail sector seems weak as Retail Sales decreased -0.6% and Core Retail Sales withdrawn – 0.1%. The USD doesn’t have time to rest as next week on Wednesday, the FOMC Economic Projections together with the Federal Funds Rate will be released. An anticipatory reaction of appreciation may well match the overall financial picture.
USDJPY meanwhile is struggling between 121.00-121.68 while the 122.40 resistance level seems to be threatened, maybe in the beginning of the next week. USDCHF is currently fighting to conquer the parity. A lateral movement with 0.9980 as a support level and 1.0150 as a resistance level most likely would help strengthen the trend.
NZDUSD moves on a descending path given by the Rising Wedge (visible on an H4 timeframe) which was disrupted by the RBNZ press conference. RBNZ announced the interest rate at 3.5%, while the officials declared that they are looking forward to achieving a period of stability in the official cash rate while future adjustments, either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data. The Kiwi rallied to 0.7420 and now the market may resume the downward trend once the 0.7300 support level is broken.
WTI crude oil prices are kept in the local support levels as the US crude reserves being at its peak don’t let prices to climb. In Iraq, the situation is tense as oil companies have proposed millions of dollars of cuts in the development of the oil industry. Officials still want these cuts to be made while maintaining or even increasing current oil production levels, in an attempt to keep OPEC’s market share. The price of oil is “boiling” and soon we may have some surprises.
