Key Forex Afternoon Notes:
- Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 1.4% vs. 0.6%
- Australia MI inflation expectations 3.2% vs. 4% previously
- Australia employment change 15.6k vs. 15.3k; unemployment rate 6.3% vs. 6.4%
- Japan consumer confidence 40.7 vs. 39.9
- Germany final CPI m/m 0.9% vs. 0.9%
- France final CPI m/m 0.7% vs. 0.6%
- Eurozone industrial production m/m -0.1% vs. 0.3%
- Canada NHPI m/m -0.1% vs. 0.2%
- US Core retail sales m/m-0.1% vs. 0.6%; retail sales m/m -0.6% vs. 0.3%
- Initial jobless claims 289k vs. 306k
- US import prices m/m 0.4% vs. 0.2%
Later
- BoE Governor Mark Carney Speech
- US business inventories
Markets were volatile since the start of today’s trading session, offset by yesterday’s RBNZ interest rate decision. While the RBNZ decided to leave interest rates unchanged, the Kiwi saw a brief rally across the board. Few hours later, the Australian employment data was released, which managed to beat estimates as the unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.3%. However, considering the volatility of the jobs report from Australia, the Aussie dollar shrugged off the positive news as the currency traded mixed across the board.
Data from Japan continued to be positive, with consumer confidence picking to 40.7. The Yen remained largely stronger across the board, a trend seen for the past few trading sessions, but seemed to ease into today’s European session as most of the Yen cross currencies managed to stage a relief rally.
The European session saw the release of a few economic data from the Eurozone. German and French CPI managed to rise or meet estimates while industrial production fell -0.1% for the month. The Euro managed to rebound from the lows of 1.05 levels to trade above the daily pivot level at 1.059 ahead of the US economic data. EURUSD managed to hold on to its gains but a bottom is not yet confirmed until we see a clear corrective retest of the turnaround.
The British Pound was weak today losing against most of its peers. The pair managed to hit a low to 1.491 before turning around to trade higher at 1.50 levels at the time of writing.
The USDJPY fell from the highs of 121 to trade near 120.75 levels, but remains well supported above the support at 120 zone.
US economic data saw disappointing numbers as retail sales continued to remain weak, failing to meet estimates. While import prices rose and weekly unemployment claims were better than expected, the markets saw a bearish reaction to the economic data, with the US trading weaker on the release of the retail sales report. Later in the day, business inventory report is also expected to be released, but is unlikely to move the markets.
Canada’s housing price index disappointed falling -0.1% as the Canadian dollar was trading mixed but overall weaker across the board. The short term weakness in the Greenback is likely to see the commodity risk currencies, namely the Australia and New Zealand dollars manage to stage a rally for the near term.
