Fundamental Analysis

This morning, Germany published the final version of its Q1 GDP figures, showing negative growth. Added to the negative result in the final quarter of last year, that means Germany technically has been in a recession. The market, on the…
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While headlines are dominated by the brinkmanship over spending playing out in Washington, the Fed will release the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This could provide markets a little break, as attention focuses on what's coming after…
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UK CPI will finally fall below double digits when the April report is issued tomorrow. Unless there is an unprecedented catastrophe, that is. While policymakers and politicians might cheer the results, the components are likely to keep the…
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This week, the yuan broke above the 7.0000 handle against the dollar and continued to rise. Generally, the Chinese currency isn't a popular trade because it's officially kept within a trading band. The government allowed that band to drift…
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BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said that there are no changes to monetary policy planned for now, but the data line up is showing a different picture. The BOJ announced it was conducting a review of monetary policy, which isn't…
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The roller-coaster ride for crude might be coming to an end, after the White House confirmed yesterday it would start replenishing the SPR as soon as June. Rumors of this circulated at the start of the week, helping provide a floor for…
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Over the last few days, expectations that the Fed won't pause at the next meeting have been creeping up. The macro data keeps painting a contradicting picture of the American economy, which could mean markets have an outsized reaction to…
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The UK is expected to get another bit of good economic news. But upbeat forecasts make it easier for a disappointment to appear and drag on the market. After a string of positive results that have failed to energize the pound over the last…
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US President Joe Biden was scheduled to meet again today with congressional leaders to talk about resolving the debt ceiling. But it was abruptly postponed, without a reason given. A few hours later, it was reported that the delay was…
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Crude prices have been on something of a roller coaster over the last month and a half or so. While analysts point to individual news items around each price move, getting a handle on the general trend is a lot more complicated. The…
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