Fundamental Analysis

The tensions in the Middle East have generated some interesting patterns in crude and gold prices. Oil has been more volatile, as might be expected given that it is more directly impacted if war breaks out along the Strait of Hormuz. But…
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For months, the ECB's mantra has been that inflation and, therefore, monetary policy are in "a good place". This has led the market and economists to expect no rate changes in the Eurozone this year. However, inflation is starting to move…
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The yen(USDJPY) fell to a two-week low on Wednesday amid changes in the BOJ's board and ahead of Tokyo inflation figures later in the week. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar jumped after hotter-than-expected inflation raised the odds of more RBA…
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Markets are still processing the effects of last Friday's Supreme Court ruling that ended the "reciprocal" tariffs that sparked the global trade war. The Trump Administration also seems to still be adjusting to the new legal landscape,…
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Markets are giving mixed reactions to Friday's US Supreme Court ruling invalidating the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump last April. The initial reaction was positive, with a surge in risk appetite. But after…
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Three major assets are higher on Friday, all driven by the combination of two factors that caught the market by surprise. Those are the dollar, gold and crude. Tensions between US and Iran are high now amid rumors that US President Donald…
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Friday has the release of flash PMI figures from several major economies, which normally move the market. However, a theme that has been developing over the last few months suggests that this time around, the data will have a greater impact…
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The Fed is entering a transition period in which a new Chair is expected to set the tone for monetary policy. This creates some market uncertainty, which could affect dollar pairs. It's particularly acute this time around, given US…
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Tuesday has multiple events that could profoundly affect crude prices. The moves could be even larger than normal, given thin trading in the market, as the world's largest importer, China, is on holiday. Depending on what happens over the…
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At its last meeting, the BOE cut its inflation outlook for this year, saying it will fall below target in the second half. This was interpreted as a sign that the central bank will cut rates at the next meeting in March. However, that…
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