The Week Ahead – more trouble ahead

EURUSD inflation worries increase

The pair started the week with a gap lower as the dollar looks to regain a foothold. With last week’s NFP data seemingly pushing prices higher, that is now a distant memory as price action looks for its next low. Early predictions for this week’s inflation data see it creeping higher, which is no surprise given that geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. Should price action remain bearish, 1.1430 is the next target and support, with 1.1700 the level higher as a bullish digergence emerges.

XAUUSD holding critical support

US job data initially sent gold higher as traders benefited from a negative reading for the first time since October. However, a full reversal has seen the yellow metal test the critical support again. With the current Middle Eastern conflict continuing into its second week, prices will remain volatile. A firm resistance at the previous spike towards 5200 is the next target; 5000 looks like it will be a firm support for now.

UKOIL not slowing down

Oil jumped another 30% on the market open as tensions boil over. As markets monitored developments in the Middle East, oil output in the Persian Gulf fell sharply. With no end in sight at the moment, oil is expected to continue its move higher, hitting prices that we haven’t seen since the beginning of the Russia/Ukraine conflict four years ago. Another move higher targets 130, with 100 as the new support.

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