The Week Ahead – New Year, New Risk

AUDUSD (Aussie) continues the strain

The AUDUSD (Aussie) fell to a 2-year low after the hawkish Fed, which has sent the greenback surging in recent sessions. Last week’s RBA meeting minutes noted that economic activity has been weaker than expected, as the bank kept rates on hold for a ninth consecutive meeting. Inflation risks are still expected to keep the tone dovish for now, as the pair remains pressured as the bear rally continues. 0.6300 is needed for a decisive life in price action, with 0.6160 as the first support.

XAUUSD remains steady

Gold price remains relatively steady as traders adjust to a more cautious outlook. The bigger picture shows the dollar retaining its strength, supported by expectations that the Fed will adopt a slower pace of rate cuts next year. Traders will look for confirmation in the next set of labour data, and a softer reading could trigger a correction of the dollar, which in turn could propel gold past its all-time high. 2675 is the next highest target, and 2600 is the freshest support.

NAS 100 pushing for another high

The recent Santa Rally has seen stocks push higher over the holiday season, as the Nasdaq is pushing towards its recent peak. Gains in big tech stocks helped not only the index but the S&P500 too. In addition, as we move into 2025, improved appetite for riskier equities would mirror a sustained drop in Treasury yields, lifting the tech-heavy index towards its all-time high above 22400. 20800 is the closest support.

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