Forex Trading Library

The Week Ahead – Fed rate cut confirmation

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EURUSD hoping to hold on to gains
EURUSD chart displaying resistance and support levels, influenced by the Fed rate cut decision.

The euro bounced back from the February low as Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed was at a terminal rate. Speculation regarding a potential Fed rate cut has intensified amidst the FOMC’s expectation of further progress on inflation, albeit at a slower pace than last year. This has caused a fall in the dollar across the board, but a strong rate cutting cycle is not expected just yet. The latest PMIs in the eurozone continue to recover, with the ECB striving to lower its inflation target by 2%. 1.0950 is a crucial resistance, and 1.0700 is the current floor.


USDCAD triple top moves prices lower
USDCAD Triple Top Formation Chart

The Canadian dollar strengthened on the sight of weakness in the greenback. However, rising oil prices could affect the timing of the Bank of Canada to begin cutting rates. As markets price in the lack of further tightening from other central banks, the loonie might stand out, with the greenback’s softness and surging oil prices being significant drivers of a potential rally. The triple top 1.3610 has a firm ceiling, while 1.3440 has the current floor.


UKOIL rebounds over tighter supply
UKOIL Surge and Resistance Levels Chart

Brent crude settled at its highest levels in 5 months over concerns about supply disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East. The worry over supply disruptions also continues. However, some of these concerns were lowered by an unexpected increase in US inventories. With the rally approaching the psychological level of $90, traders will wonder if another $10 jump will happen at the end of the quarter. 86.00 has become an effective floor as the price looks for resistance at 89.50.


NAS 100 still maintaining bull run
NAS100 Bull Run and Support Levels Chart

The Nasdaq 100 kept the rally going as another record high is in sight. The push was attributed to PMI data showing the manufacturing industry moved higher in March and a decent NFP report. A slight dip followed confirmation of the Fed’s recent dovish monetary policy outlook. But the Bulls hope this is just a slight retracement and not the beginning of a correction. 18500 is the next target, with 17600 as the support.


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