Forex Trading Library

The Week Ahead Avoiding the Risk

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EURUSD subdued as ECB remains firm
EURUSD-chart-26-1-2024

The euro faltered in its latest attempt at a resurgence as the ECB kept interest rates unchanged. The central bank still duels with record high levels as it looks to bring inflation back to 2%. Officials have said that the rate outlook depends on key data. Easing CPI and positive PMI last month could fuel speculation that a terminal rate has been agreed. The pair is heading towards 1.08 with 1.0950 being fresh resistance.

GBPUSD looks to follow ECB
GBPUSD-chart-26-1-2024

The pound remains steady ahead of the BoE meeting next week. The dollars broader weakness does not mean that Sterling is in a better shape with UK inflation ticking higher in December. The BoE is expected to remain unchanged as global central banks look to pause rate hikes. What worries traders is that the UK economy is more brittle than its US counterpart. A general election later this year could move the pair to Brexit volatility levels. The pair is testing 1.2800 with 1.2630 as the closest support.

XAUUSD buying the dip
XAUUSD-chart-26-1-2024

Gold remains in a bearish trend, hoping the $2,000 level is its saving grace. With the Fed looking dovish for the foreseeable future, geopolitical tensions have been the key driver for the yellow metal in recent sessions. Buyers might be looking for an excuse to take profit, with a break at the psychological support possibly bringing prices down to Novembers levels at 1940. 2024s high of 2060 is the current ceiling, with all eyes on the Fed for their next signal.

NAS100 bolstered by earnings data

NASDAQ-chart-26-1-2024

The Nasdaq 100 rallies as recession fears recede, with the most optimistic earnings season pushing the index to fresh highs. Recent indicators have made investors realise that things are not that bad, and a combination of decent growth and positive job numbers shows no slowdown in sight. With other major central banks pausing their hike cycles, this helps dissipate some of the pessimism. But traders are wary of a strong retracement with the RSI continuously in overbought territory. 17600 is the immediate resistance, and 17000 is the first support.

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