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Global Final November PMIs and Declining Sentiment

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Risk appetite got a bit of a boost overnight despite disappointing Chinese NBS PMI figures. Health authorities in the world’s second largest economy promised to revise the way in which zero-covid policies would be enacted, and touted progress in vaccinations for the elderly. The latter is seen as a key point in finally getting China in a position where restrictions can be lifted.

Chinese factory orders hit the lowest level in seven months. But that was for the larger, government-run companies that are surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics. The private measure of smaller, more export-oriented business is carried out by Caixin, which could moderate the current outlook

What could move the markets

Meanwhile, focus is on the rest of the world as PMIs are expected to repeat the upbeat tone seen during the preliminary results published two weeks. Here are some of the major factors to watch out for:

China:

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is forecast to come in at 48.9, down from 49.2 previously. But given the result out of the official survey, the market is likely to be not surprised if the measure is closer to 48. On the other hand, a smaller drop than expected could add to the current positive momentum and buoy commodity currencies.

Europe:

German flash PMI was the standout, coming in well above expectations and breaking a multi-month slide. It stayed well into contraction, but could be shining a light at the end of the tunnel. Particularly when taken in combination with the surprise drop in inflation in the largest economy in Europe. Although it doesn’t appear to be enough to shake the perception that the ECB will act quite aggressively at their final meeting for the year.

Eurozone PMI is expected to repeat the flash reading of 47.3, which was a substantial improvement over the 46.4 of October. But, it’s still below the 50 level, which separates contraction from expansion. Europe continues to contract, but not as much as expected. This also can be seen in the context of Eurozone inflation also coming in below expectations, just like with Germany. But, it should be pointed out that core CPI stayed steady, suggesting the improvement in inflation reading is due more to easing energy prices than a structural change in the shared economy.

United States

The final reading for S&P Manufacturing PMI is expected to be the same as the flash reading at 47.6, which was significantly down compared to 50.4 in the prior month, and well below the technical contraction of 49.9 expected. But this could be due to methodological differences.

This is because the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November came in broadly speaking within expectations, at 50.2 compared to 50.0 expected. A couple of decimal points isn’t a major difference this close to the line between contraction and expansion. But, it’s expected that ISM will revise their measure down to 49.8, meaning both PMI measures will move into contraction, if expectations are met.

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