For the AUDUSD currency pair, a bearish triple zigzag is formed in the long term Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ, where the primary wave Ⓩ is a simple descending zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). The intermediate wave (B) of this zigzag took the form of a simple bullish zigzag A-B-C, marked with red letters.
At the moment, an impulse wave (C) is being formed, which consists of minor sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5. The minor wave 3 is also divided into five sub-waves signed with green Roman numerals in circles.
Most likely, the development of the sideways correction wave 4 was completed not so long ago, after which the market continued to move down in the impulse wave 5. The length of wave 5 can be predicted in comparison with wave 3, where we take 3 for 100%.
Based on these considerations, we can conclude that wave 5 may end near 0.593, since at that level, it will be at 50% along the Fibonacci lines of bearish impulse 3. Thus, according to the main option, a decrease in the currency pair is possible.
If we consider an alternative scenario, we can assume that the correction wave 4, which is currently being formed, has not yet been fully completed. This wave may take the form of a deeper correction wave than in the main version.
Thus, the bulls could only build the first part of correction 4, that is, we could see a fully formed impulse minute wave ⓐ and a correction wave ⓑ, which is close to its completion.
When ⓑ is fully completed, the market may grow in a new impulse wave ⓒ to the area of 0.648. At that level, the entire correction wave 4 will be at 38.2% along the Fibonacci lines of previous bearish impulse 3. Then, after the full completion of wave 4, we can expect a decline in the minor wave 5.
Thus, the main difference between the main option and the alternative is whether wave 4 has ended in the form of a shallow sideways correction or we have not yet seen its completion and the growth in it will continue to higher prices.
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