Forex Trading Library

Global October PMIs and the Slowing Economy

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Going into the end of the year, the general theme has been slowing economic activity. Even when certain data points appear positive on the surface, a look under the hood reveals additional problems. For example, the latest US GDP figures came in showing growth. But that was largely driven by a reduction in imports, suggesting demand destruction in the largest consumer economy in the world. If Americans are importing less, export-heavy countries would presumably be selling less.

The focus in the coming days on purchasing managers to see if businesses are slowing down activity. The data is split between Tuesday and Wednesday due to the holiday in most of Europe tomorrow. Note that trading volumes are expected to be lower today and tomorrow for that reason as well.


Australia is expected to continue to defy the general trend and stay firmly in expansion, thanks to the rebound reported in China. Australian exports volumes remain steady, despite worries about the Chinese construction industry. Australian October PMI is expected to fall to 52.8 from 53.5.


The official PMI measure in China came in below expectations at 49.2, deeper in contraction. A similar thing might happen with tomorrow’s private Caixin October Manufacturing PMI, which is forecast at 49.0, up from 48.1 last month.


Following political turmoil and a spike in borrowing rates, UK businesses are expected to have been less optimistic last month. UK October Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall significantly to 45.8 compared to 48.4 prior.


The alpine nation with relatively low inflation and high employment is expected to continue to stand out from the crowd, but see some of the expansion diminish as it’s subject to impacts from its major trade partners. Swiss October Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 56.0 from 57.1 prior.


Both PMI measures from the world’s largest economy are expected to slip into technical contraction. The more dramatic move is expected from the S&P Manufacturing PMI expected at 49.9 compared to 52.0 prior. The more closely followed ISM Manufacturing PMI expected at 49.9 compared to 50.9 prior.


French data is expected to slip further into contraction, and maintain the months-long trend at this point. As the first of the major EU countries to report, likely to set the theme for the continent unless there is a major deviation. October Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 47.4 compared to 47.7 prior


The largest economy in Europe could have a different result from the rest because of the unusual way the government is trying to deal with the energy crisis by passing costs on to industrial consumers. Germany is expected to have the worst Manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone at 45.7 compared to 47.8 prior.

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