USDTRY hit record highs as it pressures the psychological 7.50 barrier. An ascension from the beginning of the year saw a pullback in May. After a lengthy consolidation, we have witnessed strong bullish behavior with prices moving far away from the Ichimoku cloud.
However, a recent bearish divergence on the momentum indicator sees that bulls could be exhausted. A pullback towards the previous high break at 7.26 could be the first target.
Further weakness could then pull prices towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and into the cloud.
If prices stay engulfed in the cloud then further downside levels could be brought into play. Should the currency pair drop to 7.00, then a move to the yearly low of 5.85 could come into fruition.
A look on the 4-hour chart shows clearer resistance at the record high of 7.5. The previous bearish divergence could be a catalyst for potential weakness in the short-term.
Prices are closer to the Ichimoku cloud and are trading between both the Tenkan and Kijun lines. This indicates a possible move to the downside towards the 38.2% short-term Fibonacci and the 7.26 confluence level.
We will now look for further clues at the momentum indicator for potential moves to the downside. The recent false breaks witnessed at the 7.20 region will be the next target should the said confluence level be broken.