GBPAUD downside distribution emerged in weighty steps. Prices fell from a top of 2.0855 down to a recent low of 1.7860.
The deep, however, is poised to end. This can take shape near the lower support of the regression channel starting in Oct ’16. A false break can be also expected to transpire near the 1.7653 Fibonacci support.
Floating around the golden ratio will increase the chances of a bullish rally. The move will be supported by the RSI (14) signal.
Recording a low near or outside the north channel will shift focus back on the TR1 trendline in the short-term. GBPAUD sellers, however, will have to be tipped ahead of the median regression resistance near 1.7960.
The short-term regression channel starting in Mar ’20 capped gains twice in July. The pressure did translate into fresh lows but the attempts were weak and formed a double bottom at 1.7860.
Remaining below the TR1 and/or the median regression resistance could ease prices to fresh lows. The move will be supported by the RSI (14) signal.
An attempt to break to fresh highs will shift the upside focus away from the aforementioned resistances. Bulls will eye the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.8267 instead.
More upside can be expected from 1.8267. And without a rejection at the lower regression channel, this will mark a weak bearish attempt.
In either case, the upper short-term channel will influence bulls next. Should we receive further upside though, a Dead-Cat-Bounce (DCB) could be in the making.