Natural Gas at 25-Year Lows, Will It Fall Further?

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The prices of Natural Gas plummeted yesterday to ’96 lows of $1.40. Far from the lower channel of the regression channel that started in Aug ’09, prices could decline further. The commodity is currently trading within the lower zone of the regression channel as well.

Despite crossing above the intermediate descending channel on Apr ’20, bulls managed to keep prices afloat for a few weeks only. On May 11, NATGAS plummeted through the regression line below $1.65 again and has fallen sharply since Monday’s open at $1.61.

According to the bearish trendline support connecting the lows of Aug 5 and Apr 2, bears could attempt to revisit the $1 round support in the following few weeks.

Until then, however, prices could move higher towards the 50% Fibonacci of the $1.59-$1.41 leg. The retracement tool below suggests that this level is around the $1.50 round resistance.

Often, such dramatic falls are followed by either a short-term pullback or a consolidation. We could see either occurring with no surprise.

The pullback is expected to cease anywhere between $1.45 and $1.59. However, the usual 50% makes a good target. In addition, it is expected to form a bearish divergence on the RSI (14).

The consolidation, on the other hand, is expected to cause a rapid fall to fresh lows. And we can expect TS1 support to be the next target. However, a false break could be also seen, just below the 25-year low marked yesterday.

In case bulls break the intermediate descending channel, an attempt to revisit the $1.65 high will likely be seen. A break of which will be an alarming sign for further upside continuation.

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