USDCAD: Triple Zigzag Hints At Further Weakness

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The current bearish structure suggests that the bullish formation in the intervening cycle wave x is completed. As part of a triple complex correction, the downside pattern should consist of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ.

The bearing zigzag hints at a standard Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ pattern at the time of writing. Once the primary degree ‘three’ will be completed, the triple combo should conclude in the cycle wave z.

We can expect the bearish zigzag to reach the 1.296 level at least, i.e. the most recent primary wave Ⓧ low.

However, keep in mind that last waves trade beyond such areas more often than not, and create either a false break or an extended pattern.

usdcad

A bird’s eye view suggests an alternative pattern where the complex primary zigzag is a standard ‘three’ pattern. This means that the cycle degree intervening wave x is not completed yet.

With that being said, the ‘three’ pattern hints at a flat correction in which we expect the last 5-wave impulse in wave Ⓒ.

This impulse consists of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) and currently declines into intermediate wave (4).

Wave (4) could end near 1.318, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A successful test could send prices near 1.344.

The target would respect the tenancy of third flat waves extending at or above 115% of wave Ⓐ.

A failure, however, could turn the pattern into an expanded flat or even invalidate the pattern as a whole.

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