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Weekly Market Outlook: Eurozone Flash PMIs & RBNZ

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Traders will be looking to a somewhat quiet week.

Besides the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy meeting, there aren’t that many market-moving events.

A host of economic reports will, however, keep traders busy. Data includes the final revised GDP figures from the US, including the durable goods orders report and the personal income and spending data.

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak mid-week. His scheduled speech comes just two weeks after the ECB restarted its QE program and cut the key deposit rate. For the EURUSD currency pair which has been trading rather flat, this could be an opportunity.

On the geopolitical front, developments on the Saudi oil field attacks and Brexit will likely keep investors on edge.

Here’s a brief look at the key economic events coming up for the week ahead.

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Flash PMIs & Draghi Speech to Set the Tone for Euro

Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank announced its fresh stimulus package and key deposit rates. While it will take time for the effects of the monetary policy to see its effects, this week will focus on the flash PMIs for September and Mario Draghi’s speech.

Eurozone Flash PMIs to Remain Sluggish

Forecasts for the manufacturing and services activity for September will be coming out via Markit’s PMI figures.

No big changes are expected. Both manufacturing and services PMI reports are expected to show just a moderate change. However, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is expected to tick higher from the decline in August.

Manufacturing activity in the eurozone will still remain in contraction but there are hopes of a modest pickup. Services PMI could, however, rise at a slower pace.

Will Draghi’s Speech Move the Markets?

At this point, it is unsure what topics Draghi will touch upon in his testimony to the European parliament. It is likely, however, that he will be defending his monetary policy action.

There is a good chance that Draghi will stick to the narrative of sluggish growth in the eurozone. It is also possible that the central bank chief, whose term ends in October, will be urging lawmakers to push for fiscal policy changes.

Given that the testimony will be one of the last from the current ECB chief, investors will be closely watching the headlines.

A Somewhat Busy Week for the US

The economic calendar looks a bit busy as far as the USD is concerned. The week ahead will see a mix of economic reports, some stale and some new. Meanwhile, a scheduled speech from FOMC members will also be of interest for investors.

US Final Revised GDP to Remain Unchanged

The final revised GDP figures for the quarter ending June 2019 is due. No changes are expected. The US economy is confirmed to have increased by 2.0% in the second quarter.

Investors will be looking at the more important figures this week. These include the durable goods orders report for August, which are forecast to ease after rising in July.

Personal income and spending data will also shed light on the US consumer. Given that August retail sales were somewhat slower, personal spending is unsurprisingly forecast to slow.

Fed Member Speeches

Following the FOMC meeting last week, various Fed members will be speaking over the course of the week. The line-up includes Williams, Bullard, George, and Clarida.

The speeches will likely garner attention as investors try to assess where the Fed stands on monetary policy.

RBNZ to Stand Pat on Policy

Following two consecutive weeks of central bank meetings, the RBNZ will be taking the center stage this week.

The central bank will be leaving the official cash rate unchanged at 1.00%. This comes as officials will likely want to buy more time. But the RBNZ could maintain its dovish outlook.

Following the rate cuts this year, the RBNZ looks to be done for the remainder of the year. But a lot will depend on the incoming data over the next few months.

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