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Weekly Market Outlook: OPEC & NFP

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The markets look to a new trading month with a major lineup of economic releases due over the course of the week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will kick off the monetary policy side. Speculation is rife that the RBA could cut rates by another quarter basis point this week. If the RBA goes ahead with the rate cut, it would bring the interest rates down to 1.0%, a new historical low for the central bank.

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Besides the RBA meeting, other economic reports from Australia will include the building permits and import/export data followed by the retail sales report.

Elsewhere, the data from the eurozone will cover the monthly PMI reports for the month of June. The data could provide initial insights into how the eurozone’s economy fared during the first three months of the year. Other data over the week includes the producer prices index which is expected to show strong gains on a yearly basis. Retail sales figures are also due from the eurozone this week.

Data from Canada will see just the monthly payrolls report due on Friday. This coincides with the payrolls report from the US as well, bringing quite a bit of volatility to the USD/CAD currency pair.

Data from the US is expected to remain somewhat mixed. Investors are looking to see how the economy closed the second quarter of the year.

Here’s a quick recap of what’s to come in the currency markets this week.

Busy Week for the US – Payrolls & ISM

Data from the US will be particularly important as it will cover the end of the second quarter.

The Institute of Supply Management’s PMI figures for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing will be coming up this week. The data comes as the manufacturing activity in the US fell for five consecutive months. We can expect manufacturing activity to further decline in June.

The US also saw a disappointing payrolls report last month. However, expectations show that there could be a rebound in June. The US unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

Payrolls are forecast to rise an average of 135k – 165k for the month of June. Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings are expected to post a modest uptick to 0.3% on the month, up from 0.2% from the month before.

Oil Traders Look to OPEC Meeting

Crude oil traders will be looking to the semi-annual OPEC meeting this week. The meeting is scheduled to take place on 1st and 2nd of July in Vienna, Austria.

The meeting comes in the backdrop of the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. President Trump has also been very vocal about asking for OPEC to raise production in order to cut oil prices. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil prices are trading close to the $60 a barrel price point.

Comments by various other officials in the run-up to the OPEC meeting have shown the OPEC members’ preference for oil prices to average around $60 a barrel. The question remains whether OPEC and Russia will raise production, which could lead to a decline in oil prices.

However, various headwinds remain. Many major international observers have pointed to slower economic growth in the coming years. As a result, oil prices could be hit harder.

Meanwhile, reports over the week showed that OPEC was already close to reaching a production cut deal. This means that OPEC members could potentially continue to extend the current production cuts over the course of the next few months.

However, with Russia now also playing a significant role with OPEC, Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak recently said that it was too early to tell. Regardless, the outcome from the OPEC meeting will see some volatility in the oil markets this week.

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