USD Strengthens On Retail Sales And Jobless Claims

Intraday Technical Analysis 19 April

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The greenback maintained gains as economic data from the United States continued to support the view that growth was robust.

The monthly retail sales report surprised with an increase of 1.6% on the month, while core retail sales were up 1.2%. The weekly jobless claims fell to 192,000 marking a new low in the over five decades. The US bond and equity markets are closed today.

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Euro Sips on Soft Flash PMI Data

The euro was down 0.57% on the day on Thursday. The strong declines came as the flash PMI reports for the eurozone came out weaker than forecast. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI eased to 47.8 while services PMI was at 52.5. The data suggests that the economic growth in the eurozone was still weak. Economists were hoping to see a rebound in business activity.

Will the EURUSD Recover from the Declines?

The EURUSD gave up the gains as price fell to a weekly low. However, the reversal looks to be taking place following the doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart. The currency pair will need to break out from 1.1246 in order to post any meaningful correction to the upside. A retest of the 1.1276 level will see the resistance area being tested once again.

EURUSD

US Crude Turns Flat

Oil prices turned flat at the top end of the rally with price rising only modestly on Thursday. Reports showed that Saudi Arabia’s oil exports fell by 277,000 barrels per day to just under 7 billion bps in February. Supply of crude oil came under pressure after Venezuela joined the US sanctions list alongside Iran.

Will Crude Oil Maintain the Range?

Oil prices failed to make any fresh highs, leaving price to trade flat within the 64.55 – 63.20 level. On the weekly chart, we see the doji pattern taking shape which could signal a temporary pause to the rally. Oil prices will need to close bearish in order to confirm that the top has been established. Watch for price to break out to the downside within the range to confirm this view.

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Gold Posts Modest Gains After a 5-day Losing Streak

The precious metal was seen posting some modest gains right after prices set a new yearly low for 2019. Gold prices recovered but only slightly. The gains were mostly attributed to the weekly squaring off of positions. Economic data is slowing, bringing back the optimism that the US economy is regaining the momentum in growth.

Is XAUUSD Set for a Rebound?

XAUUSD was seen closing with some modest gains on Thursday. The rebound in price came near the 1271 – 1274 region. This also coincides with price breaking out from the falling price channel. With the support level at 1284 – 1285 breached, this is the ideal upside target if the rebound is sustained. To the downside, if gold slips below the previous lows, we could expect further continuation to the downtrend.

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