Intraday Technical Analysis 28 February

U.S. Q4 GDP report on tap

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The U.S. dollar attempted to pare losses from Wednesday. Economic data on the day was relatively quiet from the Eurozone. Germany’s Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann gave a speech where he said that he would like to lead the central bank. Weidmann has been a harsh critique of Mario Draghi and the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy. The euro did not react much to the comments.


Canada’s headline inflation rose by 0.1% on the month, which was below estimates of a 0.2% increase. On a year over year basis, headline inflation increased by 1.9% matching estimates. However, the BoC’s core inflation rate remained well above 2.0% which is the inflation target rate.

Final US wholesale inventories report showed a 1.1% increase on the month in January. Factory orders, however, rose just 0.1% in December, missing estimates of a 1.5% increase. Pending home sales were stronger than expected, rising 4.6% against estimates of a 0.7% increase.

More data from around the world

The economic calendar today gets off to a busy start. Earlier, in the Asian trading session, Australia’s private Capex released figures for Q4 and a 2.0% increase. Economists forecast that Capex would rise 1.1% during the fourth quarter. This follows a 0.5% decline from the third quarter.

China’s manufacturing PMI report released earlier today showed a decline to 49.2 for February. This was lower than the forecasts of a drop to 49.5.

The European trading session kicks off with the quarterly GDP report from Switzerland. Data should show a 0.4% increase in the quarter during the three months ending December. This follows a 0.2% decline in the third quarter.

Germany’s preliminary inflation report is due later today including France. Inflation should rise by 0.5% on the month in Germany. French inflation should increase by 0.4% which would reverse the 0.4% decline from the month before.

The NY trading session today will see the release of the advance GDP report. Forecasts point to a 2.6% increase in GDP during the quarter ending December 2018. This would mark a slower pace of growth during the period.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1374): The EURUSD currency pair maintains the gradual gains. Price action rallied to a 3-week high briefly before easing back. With the support level near 1.1327 – 1.309 holding out in the near term, price action is biased to the upside. The modest gains keep the EURUSD on track for prices to test the resistance level at 1.1435 level. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart time frame could post a bullish signal confirming the upside.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.90): The USDJPY currency pair managed to rebound with price action pushing to the upside over the past few sessions. The resistance level at 111.21 remains in sight for another firm retest. This could confirm the upside bias for the bullish ascending triangle pattern on the daily time frame. A breakout above this level might see USDJPY posting further gains. The next primary target should be at 112.54.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1318.80): Gold prices declined after prices stayed muted in the previous three sessions. Price action barely closed below the main support level of 1321.58. This could signal a possible move back above this level in which case the bias would remain to the upside. If gold prices extend lower declines, a modest rebound could lead to a lower high in place. A significant lower high could with no doubt signal that the bullish momentum is off the charts. Watch the 1321.58 level where resistance could be next in the near term. This would indicate a move to the 1300 level initially where support could hold.



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