Intraday Technical Analysis 06 February
New Zealand unemployment rate expected to tick higher in Q4, 2018
Data from the Eurozone continued to disappoint. However, the final services PMI ticked higher, rising to 51.2 which beat estimates of an unchanged print at 50.8 from the month before.
However, retail sales fell 1.6% on the month in December which was slightly worse than the median estimates of a 1.5% decline.
The UK’s services sector showed that business activity eased to 50.1 on the index, missing estimates of an increase to 51.1.
The economic calendar today starts with the release of Germany’s factory orders report. Factory orders should increase by 0.3% on the month following a 1.0% decline in November 2018. An uptick in the factory orders report could potentially soothe the declines in the euro currency given the downbeat data over the week.
The NY trading session will see the release of Canada’s building permits. Economists forecast that building permits fell 0.9% in December. This following a 2.6% increase the month before.
Later in the day, the Ivey PMI report from Canada is due and is forecast to show a decline in business activity. The Ivey PMI index is expected to slide to 56.4 from 59.7 previously.
The overnight trading session will see the release of New Zealand‘s employment figures for the fourth quarter of 2018. Economists forecast that New Zealand’s unemployment rate will rise to 4.1% up from 3.9% in the third quarter. The quarterly employment change should increase by 0.3% marking a slower pace from 1.1% previously.
EURUSD Intraday Analysis
EURUSD (1.1400): The EURUSD currency pair maintained the gradual declines. Price action pushed lower and is likely to test the support level at 1.1390. A retest of this previously established resistance level for support could potentially stem the declines in the near term. A break down below the support could, however, push the euro currency lower. The next main support is at 1.1300 which could be tested in the near term on a clear breakdown below 1.1390.
AUDUSD Intraday Analysis
AUDUSD (0.7179): The Australian dollar attempted to rally on the intraday, testing highs of 0.7264. However, price action reversed the gains and fell back to the support level of 0.7191. At the time of writing, the AUDUSD currency pair briefly tested below the support level. A confirmed breach of this support could potentially post a decline toward the 0.7022 support. However, we expect to see some consolidation taking place near the support ahead of further declines
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis
XAUUSD (1314.09): Gold prices attempted to post a recovery but price action stalled near the resistance area of 1316. After briefly testing this resistance area, gold prices are currently trading flat. The consolidation could eventually break down lower. The possible bearish flag pattern which looks to be forming below 1316 could see gold prices testing lows of 1297. Alternately, to the upside, the gains face a limit unless gold breaks out above the resistance area of 1321 – 1316 level.