Intraday Technical Analysis 01 February

Traders eye January payrolls report

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The U.S. Dollar recovered from the losses on Thursday as price action pulled back. On the economic front, German retail sales fell 4.3% which was more than the forecasted 1.5% decline.

The Eurozone’s fourth-quarter GDP report showed that the economy advanced by 0.2% on the period. Meanwhile, Italy’s GDP contracted by 0.2%. Data from the U.S. showed that new home sales rose 657k on the month beating estimates of 569k for the period.

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Japan’s unemployment rate is at 2.4% which is better than the forecasts of 2.5%.

Swiss retail sales report is due at the start of the European trading session. Retail sales should rise by 0.1% for the year, following a 0.5% decline previously.

Manufacturing PMI from the Eurozone economies will come out later in the day. For the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI should see a headline print of 50.5. The Eurozone’s inflation estimates later follow this.

Headline inflation should increase by 1.4% on the month, marking a slower pace compared to 1.6% in December. Core CPI could remain steady at 1.0% increase on the year in January.

The NY trading session will see the monthly payrolls report coming out. Average hourly earnings might rise by 0.3% on the month in January, marking a slower pace of increase compared to 0.4% increase previously.

The U.S. unemployment rate should keep steady at 3.9%, while the average employment change might see 165k added jobs. Later in the evening, the ISM will be releasing its manufacturing PMI report.

Manufacturing activity, as measured by ISM should remain steady at 54.1 while manufacturing prices might decrease to 54.4 from 54.9 previously.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1440): The EURUSD currency pair extended declines after briefly testing the highs of 1.1500. Overall price action remains range bound with the euro currency likely to reach the declines back toward the previously breached resistance level of 1.1397 to establish support.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis

AUDUSD (0.7244): The Australian dollar advanced on Thursday as price action tested the resistance level of 0.7292. Price action closed with a doji on the 4-hour chart and closed bearish after that. We expect the declines to continue to push AUDUSD lower toward 0.7191 where support should establish. Forming support at this level could keep AUDUSD range bound within the current levels.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD (1318.46): Gold prices advanced to intraday highs of 1326 before easing back. The gains came as gold prices maintained the bullish upside pressure. However, there was a quick reversal off this level as gold prices were seen extending modest declines. Given the fact that price action has stalled near the 1315 – 1321 level, we expect to see a correction to the downside. The lower support at 1280 is likely to be tested in the near term followed by a decline to 1233.50.

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