Intraday Technical Analysis 15 November

The U.S. Dollar was seen attempting to regain some of the losses from the day before. The Dollar managed to post gains as data showed that consumer price index rose 0.3% on the month in October.

This was the biggest monthly gain since January this year, and it pushed the annual CPI to 2.5%. Core inflation which excludes the volatile food and energy prices rose 2.1% on the year in September.

Elsewhere, data from the UK showed that consumer prices remained stable. Headline CPI rose 2.4% on the year ending October. This was the same pace of increase as the month before and was slightly below the estimate of a 2.5% increase. However, the GBP was focused on the Brexit developments. News reports revealed that the UK and the EU agreed on a draft Brexit agreement. However, it is left to be seen if the deal is acceptable by the House of Commons.

Data from the Eurozone was disappointing as Germany’s economic growth contracted. On a quarterly basis, German GDP fell 0.2% pushing the annual GDP growth rate to 1.1%. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s quarterly GDP was also weaker, rising 0.2%. This was the same pace of increase as in the second quarter of the year.

Data from Australia showed that the monthly employment change increased 32.8k. This beat estimates of 19.9k along with revisions to the previous month’s data. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0% against the forecast pointing to an increase to 5.1%.

The European trading session today will see the release of the retail sales report for the month. Economists forecast that the monthly retail sales rose 0.1% after falling 0.8% previously. The trade balance figures from the Eurozone will be coming up later.

The NY trading session is marked by the release of the U.S. retail sales report. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% while core retail sales are expected to increase 0.5% on the month.

The Philly Fed manufacturing and the Empire State manufacturing index reports will be coming out later.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1340): The EURUSD currency pair managed to post a reversal following the declines earlier in the week. Price action has remained bullish for the past two daily sessions. With the Euro currency clearing the resistance area of 1.1315 – 1.1300, the EURUSD will now target the falling trend line. Clearing the trend line could potentially make way for the EURUSD to test the next main resistance area of 1.1435 – 1.1463 level.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.3009): The British pound was seen trading volatile on Wednesday. The volatility came amid news about the EU and the UK agreeing on a draft Brexit proposal which was later approved by the ministers. The resistance area of 1.3086 – 1.3132 remains the main obstacle for now. The GBPUSD will need to clear this level to aim for further gains. To the downside, we expect the ranging price action to continue if the resistance is not cleared.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1211.37): Gold prices bounced higher on the day as price action managed to clear the support/resistance area of 1204.08. If there is a decline, we expect the price to stall at 1204.08 where resistance can be established more firmly. To the upside, the immediate upside can be seen targeting 1223.50. Clearing this level will pave the way for further gains to the upside with the next level at 1238.00 coming into focus. If the support fails to hold the decline as 1204.08, then we expect to see consolidation continue with the risk of a downside breakout pushing prices even lower.