Intraday Analysis July 26th 2018

ECB Meeting in Focus

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forex technical analysis

Daily Forex Market Preview, 26/07/2018

The euro currency posted gains toward the close of business on Wednesday. The gains came after the U.S. and the Eurozone reached an agreement on industrial tariffs. The agreement came as the U.S. President Trump met with Juncker from the EU.

Economic data on the day saw the U.S. new home sales rising 631k on the month. This was lower than the forecasts.

The ECB’s monetary policy meeting will remain the key event for the day amid lack of any other fundamentals. No changes are expected from the central bank at this week’s meeting. Still, investors will be sifting through the data for clues on the forward guidance.

The ECB President, Mario Draghi is expected to maintain the status quo. Today’s meeting comes just after the ECB announced its QE tapering plans at the last month’s monetary policy meeting. The recent downtick in core inflation is expected to keep policymakers taking a cautious approach.

Elsewhere, the U.S. durable goods report will be coming out. The median forecasts point to a 0.5% increase on the core durable goods orders while headline durable goods are expected to rise 3.0% on the month.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.1733): The EURUSD closed with modest gains by Wednesday’s close as price action closed back near the daily resistance level of 1.1730. With price still at the resistance, a breakout off this level is required to maintain the upside. The daily chart is showing the consolidation shaping into a triangle pattern. On the 4-hour chart price action is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a minor neckline forming at 1.1742. A breakout above this level is required to push the currency pair toward the 1.1846 – 1.1824 level of resistance in the near term. Alternately, failure to break past the neckline resistance could push the currency pair back to 1.1688.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

forex usd/jpy

USDJPY (110.79): The USDJPY currency pair was seen closing lower on Wednesday. Price action broke past the minor bearish flag pattern clearing the support level at 111.13 – 110.85. Further declines could be triggered on the downside momentum. The lower support at 109.45 forms the next main target. However, in the event of a rebound to the upside, USDJPY will need to reclaim the level above 111.13. This will keep the currency pair trading back within the range of 112.28 level of resistance.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

forex xau/usd

XAUUSD (1231.48): Gold prices were seen moving higher but overall price action remains subdued. The precious metal is expected to maintain the range within 1242 resistance and 1219 support. Further gains or declines are likely to be maintained on a breakout off this range. The bias remains to the upside if price action can break past the resistance level of 1247 – 1242 region. To the downside, a close below 1219 could see further declines pushing the precious metal down to 1200 level of support.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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