AUDUSD Remains Weak Below 0.77
It looks like the Reserve Bank of Australia will not allow the Australian Dollar to add further gains anytime soon and may intervene on any gains.
We were looking at the AUDUSD for the past three months for a clear break above a key technical level. But so far, the pair has failed to break above 0.77 barrier, which remains solid since over a year now.
The chart above is a weekly chart for AUDUSD. You can notice how every time the pair spikes above 0.77 technical barrier, it sold off the week after.
This might be a clear sign of an intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The bank noted many times that stronger AUD would complicate the economic adjustment, which means that the bank is still looking for far weaker AUD in the coming months.
The technical indicators remain bearish on most time frames, despite the fact that the US Dollar Index outlook remains bearish as well. The index eased back from 103.0 all the way to 98.60’s, while AUD remained within a tight range since November of last year until today.
Such a tight range would switch the outlook to neutral until we see a clear breakout of that range which stands between 0.77 and 0.75.
Yet, with 0.77 is still holding, selling rallies might be the right strategy so far, with stops above 0.7750’s.
On the downside view, the pair is getting a notable support from its 50 WEEK MA which stands around 0.75 this week. Therefore the pair is likely to revisit that support in the coming days.
NZDUSD Remains Weak Below 0.74
The New Zealand Dollar has almost the same story as the Australian Dollar. For the past six months, every time the pair tried to break above 0.74 resistance, it was sold off the week after.
Such move has created a medium range on the weekly chart between 0.74 and 0.6860’s as shown on the chart, with no clear break above or below those levels.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also kept the rates unchanged at its last meeting, despite the fact that inflation remains on the rise.
Yet, it looks like NZDUSD is following AUDUSD pattern. However, the difference is that NZDUSD technical indicators are now heavily oversold, which may ease the chances for another leg lower.
This means that the current tight range is likely to remain unchanged until the pair shows a clear breakout.
On the downside view, the immediate support stands at 0.6890 which represents its 100 WEEK MA, while the first immediate resistance stands around 0.7080’s which represents its 50 WEEK MA.
As long as the pair continues to trade within those two MA’s, the short-term outlook remains neutral.
USDJPY Looking For Further Weakness
The Japanese Yen showed a notable appreciation over the past few weeks. USDJPY eased back to 110 down from 115.0 in three weeks only.
Some would say that the current decline in USDJPY is based on safe haven bids. This is actually right, especially if we look at Gold, Silver and other safe haven assets.
Yet, it looks like the current downside move is coming to an end and a short-term retracement seems to be highly possible.
Looking at the daily chart, a double bottom might be in the making. Yesterday’s close showed a clear doji candle on the daily chart, which should be watched closely, as such a hold above 110.0 since 23rd of March until today might be a clear sign for another short term retracement to the upside.
However, such rally is likely to remain limited below the previous top of last week, where sellers are likely to appear. Otherwise, a stronger rally could be seen back to 112.80 which represents its 50 DAY MA.
On the other hand, a break below last week’s low around 110.0 would accelerate the downside pressure probably toward 109.70’s and even 109.30’s.