The US nonfarm payrolls report data for September will be released this Friday on October 7, 2016, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 1230 GMT. The median consensus estimates for the September payrolls report is as follows:
- Monthly Nonfarm payrolls: 171k
- Unemployment Rate: 4.90%
- Average hourly earnings m/m: 0.20%
- Average hourly earnings y/y:
Previous (August NFP Report)
- Monthly Nonfarm payrolls: 151k
- Unemployment Rate: 4.90%
- Average hourly earnings m/m: 0.10%
- Average hourly earnings y/y: 2.40%
US Unemployment Rate
In August, payrolls disappointed with the headline NFP showing the economy adding 151k jobs during the month. It was fewer than the 180k that was expected and was weak compared to July’s print of 275k. While overall, August payrolls were decent the data was seen as not being compelling for the Fed to hike interest rates. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.90% for the third consecutive month but missed estimates of a decline to 4.80%.
September 2016 Payroll Estimates
For September, the median consensus shows that the headline payroll number will be stronger than Augusts’ print while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.90%. A modest pickup in the average hourly earnings is also expected in September. Some economists are hoping that August payrolls will be revised higher than the initial estimates of 151k. Below is a brief summary from some of the institutions.
Deutsche Bank
Economists at DB say that the September employment report will be the highlight of the week as it has the potential to change both investor and policy makers’ assessment on the economic outlook. DB forecasts that the US economy added 130k in September. “The unemployment rate (4.90%) is expected to remain at its trailing 12-month average,” DB says. On average hourly earnings (0.20% m/m) is expected to remain soft.
Nordea: Analysts at Nordea forecast a 175k headline print for the September payrolls and expect an upside revision to the August payrolls which was at 151k. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.90% while the average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 2.60% from 2.40% y/y in August.
BNP Paribas
Economists at BNP Paribas expect to see “fewer surprises that would derail the Fed’s assessment of the labor market.” The economists point out that on average in the past five years, September payrolls is the third weakest in a year around 150k and forecast a headline print of 160k.
Danske Bank
Analysts at Danske Bank expect a bullish print on the NFP this Friday, but note that the headline print could fall below the median estimates. Expectations are for 160k jobs in September, which is slightly below the median estimates and expect to see a mixed print overall. “We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.90% in September. With respect to average hourly earnings, we think they rose 0.30% m/m implying wage inflation rate at 2.60% y/y”
CitiFX
CitiFx analysts warn of a potential disappointment in Friday’s payrolls report. CitiFx says that September seasonals point to a downside miss. However, they say that this does not alter the overall positive trend in jobs but it weakens any scope of a rate hike in November. While the expectations for a December rate hike remains strong, CitiFx cautions that a miss on the estimates could see a strong unwind of expectations for December. Analysts note of a “real danger” that the “headline print will disappoint for the second month in a row” expecting to see 125k – 135k.
