RBNZ Decision Review & NZD Forecast

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RBNZ Museum

As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged today at 2.0%. This follows last month’s decision, which cut the rate by 25bps from 2.25% to 2.0% because growth and inflation remained on the downside.

The Bank’s Tone

The bank showed a somewhat dovish tone (negative) towards local and global growth, stating that significant surprise capacity remains across many economies. Given that it is accompanied by low commodity prices, this is notably suppressing global inflation. Moreover, the bank showed its concern towards the latest increase in market volatility, with government bond yields rising and equities coming off their highs. The prospects for global growth and commodity prices remain uncertain, especially while coming along with political uncertainty. In short, the bank will follow global developments and will be ready to ease its monetary policy further if needed.

Growth

The bank noted that the Second Quarter GDP results were consistent with the bank’s growth expectations. The bank is expecting that these results will remain within the same levels because they are supported by strong net immigration, construction activity, tourism and the current accommodative monetary policy.

Inflation

As we all know, due to the latest decline in crude prices, global inflation is well below central banks’ targets. This is also one of the bank’s concerns. The bank expects inflation to stay low for some time, with a possibility to decline even further.

Why NZD Strengthen Despite Dovish Statement

This is directly linked to the Federal Reserve’s decision last night, which came before the RBNZ decision. The Fed kept the Fed Fund Rate unchanged, but with more than a 50% possibility to raise rates. Moreover, Janet Yellen showed a dovish tone in her press conference, which pushed market expectations away from a December rate hike as well. This pushed equities and commodities higher as the US Dollar declined across the board.

NZD Forecast

The New Zealand Dollar has shown some strength since Mid-September until today. It retraced to around 0.72xx area, reaching as high as 0.7360s so far. In the meantime, the New Zealand Dollar against the Dollar is trading within an uptrend channel, which seems to be solid. The upper band of this channel stands at 0.7370s, while the lower band stands around 0.7290s. The outlook remains bullish as long as it stays within the uptrend channel.

NZDUSD 22 Sept

Levels To Watch

Symbol S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
NZDUSD 0.7209 0.7243 0.7298 0.7332 0.7387 0.7421 0.7476
NZDJPY 71.49 72.45 73.11 74.07 74.73 75.69 76.35
EURNZD 1.5004 1.5080 1.5148 1.5224 1.5292 1.5368 1.5436
GBPNZD 1.7479 1.7569 1.7642 1.7732 1.7805 1.7895 1.7968
AUDNZD 1.0234 1.0268 1.0319 1.0353 1.0404 1.0438

1.0489

 

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Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury has more than ten years of experience in focusing on foreign exchange and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis (global markets relationships). Nour Eldeen is a regular on many major TV networks (several times each) such as: BBC Radio, BBC World News, Al-Jazeera, Al-Hurra TV CNBC Europe, CNBC Asia, CNBC Arabia, Al Arabiya, Bloomberg, Russia Today, Dubai TV, Sama Dubai, Skynews Arabia, Qatar TV and Future TV News.

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Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury has more than ten years of experience in focusing on foreign exchange and global economic developments, as well as central bank policies and intermarket analysis (global markets relationships). Nour Eldeen is a regular on many major TV networks (several times each) such as: BBC Radio, BBC World News, Al-Jazeera, Al-Hurra TV CNBC Europe, CNBC Asia, CNBC Arabia, Al Arabiya, Bloomberg, Russia Today, Dubai TV, Sama Dubai, Skynews Arabia, Qatar TV and Future TV News.

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