The week ahead of 27/08 – 02/09 will see investors focus on the US PC data and Friday’s payrolls report for August. With Yellen signaling rate hikes, the data this week could potentially seal the deal for a September rate hike.
The British pound managed to stay on the top this week gaining 0.61% against the US dollar. The gains came as economic data released over the past weeks showed smaller than expected Brexit effects on the UK’s economy. The second quarter GDP was confirmed at 0.60% while latest data such as retail sales and unemployment continued to post modest gains from a month ago. The US dollar managed to make up for the lost ground on Friday, largely thanks to Janet Yellen’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole on rate hikes sending the dollar higher.
The Swiss franc lost over 1.70% for the week followed by gold prices which were hit the most. The yen was also down over 1.0% by last week’s close as the safe haven instruments gave up some of their gains. The euro which was trading stronger over the week also fell sharply on Friday closing the week with over 1.0% in losses.
Economic Calendar for the Week 28/08 – 02/09
|29-Aug||02:00||AUD||HIA New Home Sales m/m||8.20%|
|13:30||USD||Core PCE Price Index m/m||0.10%||0.10%|
|USD||Personal Spending m/m||0.30%||0.40%|
|USD||Personal Income m/m||0.40%||0.20%|
|23:45||NZD||Building Consents m/m||16.30%|
|30-Aug||00:30||JPY||Household Spending y/y||-1.30%||-2.20%|
|00:50||JPY||Retail Sales y/y||-0.90%||-1.30%|
|02:30||AUD||Building Approvals m/m||1.20%||-2.90%|
|07:00||EUR||German Import Prices m/m||0.00%||0.50%|
|All Day||EUR||German Prelim CPI m/m||0.10%||0.30%|
|08:00||CHF||KOF Economic Barometer||103.1||102.7|
|EUR||Spanish Flash CPI y/y||-0.50%||-0.60%|
|09:30||GBP||Net Lending to Individuals m/m||4.9B||5.2B|
|GBP||M4 Money Supply m/m||1.20%||1.10%|
|14:00||USD||S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y||5.10%||5.20%|
|15:00||USD||CB Consumer Confidence||97.2||97.3|
|31-Aug||00:05||GBP||GfK Consumer Confidence||-8||-12|
|00:50||JPY||Prelim Industrial Production m/m||0.70%||2.30%|
|NZD||ANZ Business Confidence||16|
|02:30||AUD||Private Sector Credit m/m||0.40%||0.20%|
|06:00||JPY||Housing Starts y/y||7.60%||-2.50%|
|EUR||German Retail Sales m/m||0.50%||-0.10%|
|07:45||EUR||French Consumer Spending m/m||0.30%||-0.80%|
|EUR||French Prelim CPI m/m||0.40%||-0.40%|
|08:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change||-2K||-7K|
|10:00||EUR||CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.30%||0.20%|
|EUR||Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.90%||0.90%|
|EUR||Italian Prelim CPI m/m||0.10%||0.20%|
|13:15||USD||ADP Non-Farm Employment Change||173K||179K|
|15:00||USD||Pending Home Sales m/m||0.70%||0.20%|
|23:45||NZD||Overseas Trade Index q/q||-1.40%||4.40%|
|01-Sep||00:50||JPY||Capital Spending q/y||5.60%||4.20%|
|02:30||AUD||Private Capital Expenditure q/q||-4.00%||-5.20%|
|AUD||Retail Sales m/m||0.30%||0.10%|
|02:45||CNY||Caixin Manufacturing PMI||50.1||50.6|
|03:00||JPY||Final Manufacturing PMI||49.6||49.6|
|08:15||CHF||Retail Sales y/y||-3.10%||-3.90%|
|EUR||Spanish Manufacturing PMI||50.8||51|
|08:45||EUR||Italian Manufacturing PMI||51.3||51.2|
|08:50||EUR||French Final Manufacturing PMI||48.5||48.5|
|08:55||EUR||German Final Manufacturing PMI||53.6||53.6|
|09:00||EUR||Final Manufacturing PMI||51.8||51.8|
|USD||Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q||-0.60%||-0.50%|
|USD||Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q||2.00%||2.00%|
|14:30||CAD||RBC Manufacturing PMI||51.9|
|14:45||USD||Final Manufacturing PMI||52.1||52.1|
|15:00||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI||52||52.6|
|USD||Construction Spending m/m||0.60%||-0.60%|
|USD||ISM Manufacturing Prices||54.5||55|
|All Day||USD||Total Vehicle Sales||17.2M||17.9M|
|02-Sep||00:50||JPY||Monetary Base y/y||23.10%||24.70%|
|CAD||Labor Productivity q/q||0.20%||0.40%|
|USD||Average Hourly Earnings m/m||0.20%||0.30%|
|USD||Non-Farm Employment Change||186K||255K|
|15:00||USD||Factory Orders m/m||2.10%||-1.50%|
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: The week ahead from Australia will see the building approvals due on Tuesday. Forecasts point to a 1.20% increase in July following a 2.90% slump in the previous month. While the mid-week is quiet, on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales numbers are expected show consumer spending pushing retails up 0.30% on the month, which would see retail sales rise to a 3-month high.
JPY: Economic data from Japan is limited to Tier-2 economic releases. However, on Tuesday, the monthly unemployment numbers are expected to show a 3.10% unemployment rate for Japan. Retail sales are expected to fall 0.90% albeit at a slower pace than the previous month’s 1.30% declines. The final manufacturing PMI is due in September and is expected to confirm flash manufacturing estimates of 49.6.
EUR: From the eurozone, the week ahead will see more regional data coming out. German import prices and preliminary flash CPI estimates are due on Tuesday. Flash inflation estimates are also expected for the eurozone. Forecast points to the headline CPI rising 0.30% on the year, slightly higher than the July’s inflation of 0.20%. Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged. On Thursday and Friday Markit’s PMI numbers will be coming out. This week marks the final eurozone data ahead of the ECB’s meeting on September 8th.
GBP: The UK markets are closed on Monday, and the main economic events are due only Thursday and Friday which will see the manufacturing and construction PMI numbers. Estimates point to a pullback in both these sectors as forecasts show the manufacturing PMI likely to rise 49.1 while construction PMI is expected to rise to 46.6 following July’s 48.2 and 45.9 respectively.
USD: The US dollar looks to another busy week with Monday seeing the core PCE data. Forecasts show an unchanged print of 0.10% increase in Core PCE while personal incomes are expected to rise 0.40%. The monthly private payroll figures are due on Wednesday with estimates showing the US economy added 173k jobs in the private sector. The report is followed by a busy Thursday and Friday which will see the ISM manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls which are expected to show a modest increase of 186k jobs in August, down from 255k in July. The US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.80%.