The British pound was the top performing currency last week with most of the gains coming after the BoE left interest rates unchanged against market expectations. The political developments in the UK also attributed to the GBP’s gains over the week. The Canadian dollar was the next top performing currency, gaining 0.68% for the week as the Bank of Canada left monetary policy unchanged.
The yen was the weakest link last week losing 4.45%. Following last Sunday’s election victory for Shinzo Abe’s LDP party, the markets are starting to price in policy easing from the BoJ later in July. The risk on environment also sent gold prices weaker, losing 2.57% for the week. Among the commodity risk currencies, the Kiwi was the biggest loser giving up 2.36% against the US dollar
Economic Calendar for the Week 18/07 – 22/07
|18-Jul||00:01||GBP||Rightmove HPI m/m||0.80%|
|09:15||GBP||MPC Member Weale Speaks|
|Tentative||EUR||German Buba Monthly Report|
|15:00||USD||NAHB Housing Market Index||60||60|
|15:30||AUD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.50%|
|19-Jul||02:30||AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|GBP||PPI Input m/m||0.90%||2.60%|
|GBP||Core CPI y/y||1.30%||1.20%|
|GBP||PPI Output m/m||0.10%||0.10%|
|10:00||EUR||German ZEW Economic Sentiment||8.2||19.2|
|EUR||ZEW Economic Sentiment||12.3||20.2|
|20-Jul||07:00||EUR||German PPI m/m||0.20%||0.40%|
|09:30||GBP||Average Earnings Index 3m/y||2.30%||2.00%|
|GBP||Claimant Count Change||4.1K||-0.4K|
|10:00||CHF||ZEW Economic Expectations||19.4|
|21-Jul||05:30||JPY||All Industries Activity m/m||-1.00%||1.30%|
|09:30||GBP||Retail Sales m/m||-0.40%||0.90%|
|GBP||Public Sector Net Borrowing||9.3B||9.1B|
|12:45||EUR||Minimum Bid Rate||0.00%||0.00%|
|13:30||CAD||Wholesale Sales m/m||0.30%||0.10%|
|EUR||ECB Press Conference|
|USD||Philly Fed Manufacturing Index||5.1||4.7|
|15:00||USD||Existing Home Sales||5.48M||5.53M|
|USD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.20%||-0.20%|
|22-Jul||03:00||JPY||Flash Manufacturing PMI||48.3||48.1|
|08:00||EUR||French Flash Manufacturing PMI||48.1||48.3|
|EUR||French Flash Services PMI||49.6||49.9|
|08:30||EUR||German Flash Manufacturing PMI||53.6||54.5|
|EUR||German Flash Services PMI||53.3||53.7|
|09:00||EUR||Flash Manufacturing PMI||52.1||52.8|
|EUR||Flash Services PMI||52.3||52.8|
|10:00||EUR||Italian Retail Sales m/m||0.20%||0.10%|
|13:30||CAD||Core CPI m/m||0.20%||0.30%|
|CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m||0.20%||1.30%|
|CAD||Retail Sales m/m||0.00%||0.90%|
|14:45||USD||Flash Manufacturing PMI||51.9||51.3|
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: Economic data from Australia this week is limited to the monetary policy meeting minutes which will be released on Tuesday, July 19th. The meeting minutes are from the RBA’s monetary policy meeting from early July where the RBA left interest rates unchanged.
JPY: Japan looks to a short trading with markets closed on Monday. Economic data over the remainder of the week includes the all industries activity which is forecast to fall 1.0% on the month, following a 1.30% increase previously. Preliminary manufacturing PMI data is also due and is expected to show a modest increase to 48.3 from 48.1 previously.
GBP: A busy week for the sterling, data includes the monthly inflation report. Headline inflation is expected to rise 0.40% following an increase of 0.30% previously. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is expected to rise 1.30% on the month, more than last month’s 1.20% increase. On Wednesday, the monthly jobs report is expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%, while average earnings is expected jump to 2.30% from 2.0% previously. UK retail sales numbers are out on Thursday with median forecasts pointing to a 0.40% decline, following a 0.90% increase.
EUR: The market focus will be on the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. No major changes are expected from the ECB but expectations call for the central bank to tweak its QE parameters as the ECB is expected to run out of buying eligible bonds at the current pace. The Eurozone flash PMI numbers are due on Friday and estimates point to a weaker PMI reading for June.
CAD: A busy week for the Canadian dollar, data includes the wholesale sales which is forecast to rise 0.30% on the month, extending gains of 0.10% previously. Inflation numbers are due on Friday and forecast to rise 0.20% on the core while the headline inflation is expected to rise 0.50%.
USD: Data from the US next week is expected to remain soft with housing starts and building permits numbers due out on Tuesday. For the remainder of the week, economic data includes the existing home sales data and the flash manufacturing PMI numbers on Friday.