Forex Trading Library

FX Week Ahead: BoE’s First Post-Brexit Meeting

0 568

The Japanese yen was the top performing currency last week, gaining 2.09% to the US dollar. The risk aversion sentiment last week was clear with Gold prices also seen gaining strongly. The AUD and the NZD interestingly also gained.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 08/07/2016
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 08/07/2016

The slump in oil prices was evident as the commodity pulled down the oil currencies. The Canadian dollar managed to keep the declines to a minimum, losing 0.94% but it was more evidenced in the NOK which closed 2.53% lower against the US dollar. The British sterling was also weaker down 2.27%.

Economic Calendar for the Week 27/06 – 01/07

Date Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11-Jul 00:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 2.80% -11.00%
JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.40% 3.40%
02:30 AUD Home Loans m/m -1.90% 1.70%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
13:15 CAD Housing Starts 192K 189K
15:00 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
USD Labor Market Conditions Index m/m -4.8
12-Jul 00:50 JPY PPI y/y -4.10% -4.20%
07:00 EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
EUR German WPI m/m 0.30% 0.90%
09:30 GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
11:00 USD NFIB Small Business Index 94.1 93.8
12:00 GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
14:35 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.20% 0.60%
13-Jul Tentative CNY Trade Balance 320B 325B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 46.0B 50.0B
05:30 JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -2.20% -2.30%
07:45 EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
10:00 EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.80% 1.10%
13:30 USD Import Prices m/m 0.60% 1.40%
15:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
16:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
14-Jul 02:30 AUD Employment Change 10.1K 17.9K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.80% 5.70%
08:15 CHF PPI m/m 0.20% 0.40%
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-9-0 0-0-9
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.50%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
13:30 CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.30%
USD PPI m/m 0.30% 0.40%
USD Unemployment Claims 263K 254K
USD Core PPI m/m 0.10% 0.30%
15-Jul 03:00 CNY GDP q/y 6.60% 6.70%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.90% 6.00%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 9.40% 9.60%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.90% 10.00%
09:30 GBP Construction Output m/m -1.10% 2.50%
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y 0.10% 0.10%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.90% 0.90%
EUR Trade Balance 25.2B 28.0B
13:00 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.40%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.50%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.1 6
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 75.20% 74.90%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.40%
15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.7 93.5
USD Business Inventories m/m 0.10% 0.10%
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.60%

Time: GMT+1

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

AUD: From Australia, the main event this week will be the monthly jobs report. Median forecasts estimate a 10.1k net job gain added to the economy, a modest estimate following May’s 17.9k net job gains. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.80% in June, after staying put for three months at 5.70%. Other data over the week includes the MI inflation expectations which are recorded at 3.50% at the latest reading. Home loans are forecast to fall 1.90% on the month, consistent with the cooling down of the housing markets in Australia as seen by a fall in new home sales and building permits over the past weeks.

NZD: A rather slow week for the New Zealand dollar, the only economic release of interest is next Sunday’s quarterly inflation data. The lack of data is likely to keep NZD prone to technical trading than the fundamentals, which has already managed to post strong gains last week as expectations for an RBNZ rate cut continue to fade.

CNY: Economic data from China this week is busy. The markets look forward to the quarterly GDP data on Friday, which is expected to show the economy grow at a pace of 6.60%, slightly below 6.70% growth seen previously. Industrial production data will also be released and is expected to moderate to 5.90% growth on a year over year basis, compared to 6.0% seen previously. Trade balance data is expected to show a 46 billion in US dollar denominated terms.

JPY: No major releases are in store for Japan this week. The markets will, of course, come to learn how the weekend elections fared. BoJ’s policy meeting later in July will likely remain in focus. Industrial production data is expected to fall 2.20% on the month, down from 2.30% previously, while producer price index is expected to remain negative, falling 4.10%, compared to 4.20% declines previously.

EUR: The Eurogroup meetings get underway this week again, and the markets could remain on edge in the event of any new information regarding the Brexit. Germany’s final inflation numbers are expected to confirm a 0.10% increase in the headline inflation month over month while French final CPI data is expected to show a 0.20% increase on the month. Eurozone industrial production numbers will be released on Wednesday and forecasts call for a 0.80% decline after rising 1.10% previously. The final inflation figures will be confirmed this week and could show that the Eurozone headline inflation increased 0.10% on the month while core CPI is expected to rise 0.90% on a year over year basis.

GBP: Focus shifts to the UK, which will see the BoE’s inflation report hearings on Tuesday. However, the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday will be in focus. Expectations are strong that the Bank of England could cut interest rates by 25bps at this week’s meeting. However, it could be a very close call given that a rate cut could be more of a proactive policy move than responding to deteriorating economic conditions. Construction output follows on Friday, but it is unlikely to garner much attention. On Friday, BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak and could keep the GBP significantly under pressure.

CAD: In Canada, the BoC monetary policy meeting is due on Wednesday. Expectations call for no change in Canada’s interest rate which currently stands at 0.50%. Economic data has been fairly modest consistent with the view that no policy changes will be made this week.

USD: Busy week for the US dollar as various Fed members are scheduled to speak over the week. In terms of economic data, after a relatively slow week, Thursday will see the producer price index which is expected to rise at a slower pace of 0.30%, compared to the previous month’s 0.40% increase. Core PPI data is also expected to rise 0.10%, slower than 0.30% increase seen a month before. On Friday, inflation figures are forecast to show a 0.20% increase in both the headline and the core CPI. Retail sales data is expected to show moderation, rising 0.10% after surging 0.50% the month before.

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.