Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 5th April

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april forex outlook

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD has posted a strong rally after bottoming out near 1.115 to clear the resistance level near 1.13 – 1.123 region. The past few daily sessions have however remained subdued with prices trading within a range of the inside bar formed with the highs of 1.1437 – 1.1334. A breakout in either direction could see further bias being established. Above 1.1437, resistance at 1.148 will be most likely holding the rallies unless price breaks out strongly above this level. To the downside, below 1.1334 support at 1.13 – 1.123 will be holding the declines in the near term. Below 1.123, lower support at 1.105 – 1.10285 comes into the picture.

EURUSD remains range bound in the near term
EURUSD remains range-bound in the near-term
  • Bias (D1): Upside
  • Resistance: 1.148
  • Support 1.13 – 1.1334
  • Technical Forecast: EURUSD could stay range bound within 1.148 – 1.130

USDJPY (110.4): USDJPY has remained bearish with no signs of letting go. Prices are currently trading below 111.0 support, but the Stochastics on the daily chart is currently well positioned above 20 indicating a potential bullish divergence taking shape. However, with the daily candles staying bearish, a doji or a bullish reversal pattern is needed to confirm an early bias is establishing to the upside. To the downside, below 110 support, USDJPY could easily dip towards 109 levels.

USDJPY showing signs of weakening bearish momentum
USDJPY showing signs of weakening bearish momentum
  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Resistance: 111.0
  • Support: 110.0
  • Technical Forecast: We anticipate that USDJPY is nearing its current bearish leg. Watch the daily chart for a potential bullish reversal pattern for a move to the upside

GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD is seeing a strong consolidation above the 1.42 – 1.41 support levels. Price action is limited to the downside unless we see a break below 1.41, in which case GBPUSD could dip to 1.40. The technical patterns in GBPUSD are interesting as we notice a possible slanting inverse head and shoulders forming since 3rd February while the most recent price action is showing a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline support at 1.42 – 1.41. Therefore, GBPUSD could establish a short term bias in either direction. Below 1.42 – 1.41, the downside opens up to 1.385 while to the upside, resistance at 1.4631 – 1.48 will be likely tested.

GBPUSD, break of support at 1.42 - 1.41 could determine further bias
GBPUSD, break of support at 1.42 – 1.41 could determine further bias
  • Bias (D1): Flat
  • Resistance: 1.4631
  • Support: 1.41 – 1.40
  • Technical Forecast: Price action remains range bound, and only a break of the falling trend line will indicate a move higher while a break below 1.42 – 1.41 will see further downside

USDCAD (1.31): USDCAD fell to the lows near 1.2865 support as noted in last week’s commentary. Price action has since then turned bullish, but resistance at 1.3136 will be key in the short term. A break above 1.136 will see USDCAD move higher to test 1.346 – 1.3387 resistance level. A short term dip to 1.2985 – 1.2923 could confirm the upside bias which will eventually see a move to 1.346 – 1.3387. The upside bias also gains weight with the bullish divergence to the Stochastics indicating a longer term correction towards 1.367 – 1.364

USDCAD remains poised to the upside, more gains likely
USDCAD remains poised to the upside, more gains likely
  • Bias (D1): Correction
  • Resistance: 1.3186
  • Support: 1.2985 – 1.2923
  • Technical Forecast: A test of support near 1.2985 – 1.2923 could see USDCAD attempt to break out above 1.3186 resistance for a test to 1.346 – 1.3387 initially

USDCHF (0.959): Following the short term bounce off 0.9664, USDCHF retraced some of the declines but soon declined lower with strong momentum. Price action is close to 0.954 support which could see another retracement likely. However, price action remains caught within 0.9664 and 0.954 levels of resistance and support. Below 0.954, further downside is likely for a dip to 0.95 followed by 0.930 support.

USDCHF could post a short term correction but downside bias remains
USDCHF could post a short-term correction, but downside bias remains
  • Bias (D1): Downside
  • Resistance: 0.9664
  • Support: 0.954 – 0.95
  • Technical Forecast: Range bound within the support and resistance levels identified and the bias remains to the downside for an eventual test to 0.93
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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