Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 19th April

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EURUSD (1.13)

EURUSD heading back to retest the breakout level at 1.1334
EURUSD heading back to retest the breakout level at 1.1334
  • EURUSD broke out from the range couple of days ago closing below the lower end of 1.1334
  • Price action has been steadily bouncing higher but the momentum is slow based on the small ranges being formed
  • 135 – 1.1372 will be critical as a break above this level on a daily basis could keep EURUSD back into the range with the added risk of an upside breakout
  • If the minor resistance holds, EURUSD could turn lower on a close below 1.13 falling towards 1.120.
  • Downside bias opens EURUSD for a test to the main support at 1.105 – 1.1028
  • Support: 1.13, Resistance: 1.135 – 1.1372

USDJPY (109.061)

USDJPY – Watch for a potential breakout of the falling wedge, above 109.40
USDJPY – Watch for a potential breakout of the falling wedge, above 109.40
  • USDJPY has tested 107.945 yesterday and prices were rejected at this low
  • A break above the recent higher close at 109.399 on a daily basis will validate further upside towards 111.0
  • Failure to close above 109.399 could lead to another dip back to 107.945 lows, with 108.0 coming in as a minor support
  • A close below 108 could send prices lower towards 106 – 105 levels
  • Minor consolidating falling wedge pattern shows the bias to shift to the upside
  • Support: 108 – 107.945, Resistance: 109.40 – 109.5

GBPUSD (1.43)

GBPUSD – Upside bias for a test to 1.4631 building momentum
GBPUSD – Upside bias for a test to 1.4631 building momentum
  • Support has been established at 1.42 – 1.41 levels
  • The rising median line points to further upside if prices clear 1.4459 – 1.4385
  • Above this immediate resistance, GBPUSD could test 1.4631 followed by 1.481
  • Failure to break the resistance could send GBPUSD to consolidate within the current levels for a retest back to the lower support region
  • Support: 1.42, Resistance: 1.446 – 1.438

USDCAD (1.27)

USDCAD – Mind the support at 1.276
USDCAD – Mind the support at 1.276
  • Resistance at 1.2985 – 1.2923 has held pushing prices lower
  • Daily chart has formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern yesterday but firm support at 1.27598 could hold the declines
  • An eventual close below this support could send USDCAD even lower to 1.268
  • For the upside bias to be established, USDCAD will need to close above 1.2865 and the resistance at 1.2985 – 1.2923 convincingly for a move to 1.3136
  • Support: 1.276, Resistance: 1.2985 – 1.2923

USDCHF (0.963)

USDCHF moving within a falling wedge pattern
USDCHF moving within a falling wedge pattern
  • Price action is turning lower validated by the bearish hidden divergence
  • 96 comes as an initial support but a break below this could send USDCHF lower to 0.955 – 0.954 which is a strong support
  • A break below this support could open further downside in USDCHF for a move to 0.95
  • To the upside, support needs to be established at or near 0.96 – 0.955 to validate the move higher.
  • The consolidating wedge pattern indicates a longer term move to the upside, provided 0.9848 – 0.9928 resistance is broken
  • Support: 0.96 – 0.955, Resistance: 0.966

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