17-month low by USD/JPY

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On Monday, the USD/JPY pair followed its downward trend as the Federal Reserve minutes came out, hitting a low of 109.33 – the lowest level since October 2014. After the minutes, the pair managed to come back to 109.60/70, close to the level of the information impact. Across the board, we can see that the greenback straightened after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) release.

According to the minutes, several members discussed a rate hike in the month of April, while other member wanted a March rate hike. Regarding further economic policy movements, the members were all in agreement over the fact that another rate hike should only occur when the economic data dictates, and not the calendar, signaling that the monthly FOMC meetings will not mean with certainty that the rate will change.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD major hit a fresh 2016 high at 1.1453 after to reach a daily low of 1.1337 at the beginning of the New York session; afterwards, the trend came back to mid-range. At the time of writing, the pair traded around the 1.1395 thresholds, with no significant changes during the day. In Lisbon, Draghi stated that the biggest issues the Euro Area will have to overcome in the near to mid-future are the low potential of economic growth and the high structural unemployment. Also, he added the ECB (European Central Bank) should not be considered as the savior or responsible, as the conditions for a sustainable recovery in growth are created by the market actors themselves.

Regarding the YEN, on Thursday we can see that it continues to rise across the board, hitting a 17-month high versus the USD. The USD/JPY pair went down on the American session and also broke previous lows in the European one.  It hit again October 2014 lows at the 107.65 handle. The price rebounded, but it didn’t manage to pass over the 108 handle.

The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) barrel lost its Tuesday gains yesterday, trading lower in the $37.00 area. The price for the benchmark American barrel snapped a 2-day gain streak yesterday; going under the $38.00 threshold after the EIA (Energy Information Administration) reported the inventory decreasing with around 4.9 million in the last week, more than expected. The WTI price is under pressure due to the come-back in the greenback, as well as because the increasing uncertainty regarding the freeze output meeting which will occur on the 17th of April in Doha.

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Technical Strategist, CMT level 2 (MTA). Looking for good opportunities in the market, wherever they are, since 2009.

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