Weekly Forex Preview: US Data to gain attention
Equity markets spiked on Friday morning and posted a turnaround in what would have otherwise seen another week of slump and risk off sentiment. The markets rallied as the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates. Despite a weak fourth quarter GDP numbers from the US, the BoJ’s move managed to rescue the markets with Crude Oil prices also posting decent gains to settle with 4.40% for the week at $33.6 a barrel. The Yen was, of course, the weakest currency, losing out nearly -1.90% while the commodity risk assets, the AUD and the CAD managed to emerge on the tops with 1.21% and 1.05% gains for the week.
The risk on sentiment managed to send the Swiss Franc tumbling as well, which lost out -0.78% for the week. The Euro was flat with 0.34% gains for the week.
Fundamentals for the Week 01/02 – 05/02
Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
01-02-16 | 03:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.7 |
CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54.4 | |||
03:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 48.1 | 48.2 | |
04:00 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 52.4 | |
10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 51.2 | 52.1 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 52.1 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.3 | 52.3 | |
11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 51.8 | 51.9 | |
GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 4.9B | 5.3B | ||
GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | 0.30% | 0.40% | ||
GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 70K | 70K | ||
15:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.10% | 0.30% | ||
USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.20% | 0.30% | ||
16:30 | CAD | RBC Manufacturing PMI | 47.5 | ||
16:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | 52.7 | |
17:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.6 | 48.2 | |
USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.60% | -0.40% | ||
USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 35.5 | 33.5 | ||
18:00 | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
20:00 | USD | FOMC Member Fischer Speaks | |||
02-02-16 | 05:30 | AUD | Cash Rate | 2.00% | 2.00% |
AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||
10:15 | CHF | Retail Sales y/y | -1.30% | -2.10% | |
10:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -8K | -14K | |
11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 57.5 | 57.8 | |
12:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate | 10.50% | 10.50% | |
EUR | PPI m/m | -0.40% | -0.20% | ||
Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -1.40% | ||
17:00 | USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 47.8 | 47.3 | |
20:00 | USD | FOMC Member George Speaks | |||
23:45 | NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.80% | -0.40% | |
NZD | Unemployment Rate | 6.10% | 6.00% | ||
NZD | Labor Cost Index q/q | 0.50% | 0.40% | ||
03-02-16 | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 46.3 | |
01:45 | NZD | RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks | |||
02:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 4.60% | -12.70% | |
AUD | Trade Balance | -2.45B | -2.91B | ||
03:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 50.5 | 50.2 | |
07:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 42.7 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 55.4 | 55.4 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 53.6 | 53.6 | |
11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 55.4 | 55.5 | |
12:00 | EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | -0.10% | 0.00% | |
EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | -0.30% | ||
15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 191K | 257K | |
16:45 | USD | Final Services PMI | 53.7 | 53.7 | |
17:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 55.2 | 55.3 | |
17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 8.4M | ||
04-02-16 | 00:30 | NZD | RBNZ Assist Gov McDermott Speaks | ||
10:00 | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||
11:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||
11:10 | EUR | Retail PMI | 49 | ||
14:00 | GBP | BOE Inflation Report | |||
GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 1-0-8 | 1-0-8 | ||
GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | ||||
GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
GBP | Asset Purchase Facility | 375B | 375B | ||
GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||
14:45 | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | |||
15:30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 286K | 278K | |
USD | Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q | -1.40% | 2.20% | ||
USD | Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q | 3.90% | 1.80% | ||
17:00 | USD | Factory Orders m/m | -2.00% | -0.20% | |
05-02-16 | 02:30 | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | ||
AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.40% | ||
09:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | -0.40% | 1.50% | |
10:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 560B | ||
15:30 | CAD | Employment Change | 22.8K | ||
CAD | Trade Balance | -2.0B | |||
CAD | Unemployment Rate | 7.10% | |||
USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.30% | 0.00% | ||
USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 192K | 292K | ||
USD | Trade Balance | -42.8B | -42.4B | ||
USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.00% | 5.00% | ||
17:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI | 50.3 | 49.9 |
Time: GMT+2
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: Data from Australia this week includes the RBA interest rate decision. However, not much is expected from the Central Bank as economic data from Australia has been largely modest with no downside risks as of yet. China remains an issue which is likely to be addressed by the RBA. Later in the week, building approvals are estimated to have risen 4.80% for the month while retail sales numbers due on Friday is expected to grow 0.40%.
NZD: The Kiwi will be seeing the quarterly employment numbers this week. Expectations are dovish with the New Zealand unemployment rate expected to rise to 6.10%, up from 6.0% previously while the employment is expected to rise 0.80% after contracting -0.40% in the previous quarter. Any gains in the Kiwi will likely come under pressure as RBNZ Governor Wheeler is expected to speak on Wednesday. With the RBNZ’s recent monetary policy taking a dovish stance, expect further dovish rhetoric from the RBNZ Governor.
JPY: After the BoJ’s decision to cut interest rates into negative territory, the week ahead is mostly quiet as far as economic data from Japan is concerned, and could keep the Yen as the main focus. Equity markets rallied on the BoJ’s action but the big question remains if there will be a follow through this week. Economic data from Japan includes final manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence data.
EUR: Data from the Eurozone this week is busy with manufacturing and services PMI numbers due for release. Most importantly, the markets will be looking to ECB’s Draghi speeches on Monday and Thursday for any clues to March’s policy actions. Besides this, the week ahead is mostly quiet from Eurozone.
GBP: The week ahead is busy for the Pound Sterling. Besides the monthly PMI numbers, the Bank of England is due to meet on Thursday. Expectations call for no change to monetary policy given that BoE officials in recent times took opportunities to remind the markets that interest rates are unlikely to change anytime soon. BoE’s Carney is also expected to speak later during the day.
CAD: Canadian jobs report will be the main focus this week especially after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged in January. Last week’s GDP numbers released also managed to match expectations which could indicate that the Canadian economy could be looking at some positive data. Canada’s unemployment rate increased to 7.0% – 7.10% and stayed at this level since August last year.
USD: The US dollar looks to a fresh new month. Economic data will be scrutinized closely as it marks a full month after the Fed hiked interest rates. The Core PCE numbers are due out on Monday which is expected to stay flat at 0.10% for the month. ISM manufacturing PMI is due later with estimates showing a soft increase to 48.6 from 48.2 a month ago. Wednesday will see the monthly ADP payrolls report which is expected to show 191k jobs being added while Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are weak, with estimates of 192k jobs. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.0%.