Weekly Forex Wrap Up: 08/01, 2016

By Orbex Last updated Oct 31, 2021

AUDUSD (0.70): The Australian Dollar is down -3.91% for the week, as the currency is trading near 0.70, weekly low. The Australian Dollar remained weak since the start of the week falling steadily as China rattled the markets. Commodity risk currencies at large saw a tough week while the safe haven currencies managed to gain ground. Economic data from Australia during the week included weak building approvals which fell -12.7% while retail sales managed to rise 0.40% for the month.

AIG manufacturing index 51.9 vs. 52.5 previously
Commodity prices y/y -23.3% vs. -21.8% previously
AIG services index 46.3 vs. 48.2 previously
Building approvals m/m -12.7% vs. -2.8%
Trade balance -2.91bn vs. -2.98bn
AIG construction index 46.8 vs. 50.7
Retail sales m/m 0.40% vs. 0.60%

EURUSD (1.08): The Euro is down by -0.29% to the Dollar after the single currency managed to stage an attempted rally which failed near 1.094 after initially declining to a low of 1.0712 early in the week. Economic data from the Eurozone included weak flash inflation estimates while the manufacturing and services PMI managed to broadly meet expectations. Producer prices index remained weak, down -0.20% for the month. The big news from Eurozone was the monthly unemployment rate which fell to 10.5%, marking a new low in recent months.

Germany preliminary CPI m/m -0.10% vs. 0.20%
Spain manufacturing PMI 53.0 vs. 53.1
Italy manufacturing PMI 55.6 vs. 54.9
France final manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs. 51.6
German final manufacturing PMI 53.2 vs. 53.0
Eurozone final manufacturing PMI 53.2 vs. 53.1
Eurozone Flash CPI estimate y/y 0.20% vs. 0.40%
Eurozone Core CPI flash estimate y/y 0.90% vs. 1.0%
Italy preliminary CPI m/m 0.0% vs. 0.10%
Spain services PMI 55.1 vs. 56.9
Italy services PMI 55.3 vs. 53.8
France final services PMI 49.8 vs. 50.0
Germany final services PMI 56.0 vs. 55.4
Eurozone final services PMI 54.2 53.9
Eurozone PPI m/m -0.20% vs. -0.20%
German factory orders m/m 1.50% vs. 0.10%
German retail sales m/m 0.20% vs. 0.50%
Eurozone retail PMI 49.0 vs. 48.5 previously
Eurozone unemployment rate 10.5% vs. 10.7%
Eurozone retail sales m/m -0.30% vs. 0.40%
German trade balance 19.7bn vs. 20.1bn
France industrial production m/m -0.90% vs. -0.20%
France trade balance -4.6bn vs. -4.0bn

NZDUSD (0.65): The Kiwi is down by a strong -3.52% and is one of the commodity risk currencies which has been weaker. The Kiwi was seen trading close to 0.66 at the time of writing after prices fall since the start of the week at 0.6839. Economic data from New Zealand was limited to the GDT price index which fell -1.60%, down from 1.90% increase previously.

GDT Price Index -1.6% vs. 1.9%

USDJPY (118.4): USDJPY fell -1.48% for the week as the currency pair tested lows of 117.35 briefly this week. The Yen gained on risk aversion as Chinese equity markets turmoil engulfed the global markets, sending investors to buy the safe-haven Yen. Economic data from Japan this week included the final manufacturing PMI which was soft at 52.6 while the average cash earnings remained flat for the month. There were some comments from BoJ’s Kuroda during the week where the Central Bank Governor noted that further policy easing measures would be taken if need be, but that the BoJ remains optimistic of reaching the 2.0% inflation target.

Final manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs. 52.5
Monetary base y/y 29.5% vs. 33.2%
Average cash earnings y/y 0.0% vs. 0.70%
Leading indicators 103.9% vs. 103.9%

USDCAD (1.40): The USDCAD is trading near multi-year highs gaining 1.88% for the week. Prices tested a new high this week at 1.4152 before easing back softly lower. Economic data from Canada continues to remain weak with manufacturing PMI falling to 47.5 against estimates of 486 while Ivey PMI fell to 49.9. On the unemployment front, the Canadian economy managed to add 22.8k new jobs but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.10%. The Canadian dollar remained weak on the news as building permits data fell -19.6%.

RBC manufacturing PMI 47.5 vs. 48.6
RMPI m/m -4.0% vs. -2.30%
IPPI m/m -0.20% vs. 0.10%
Trade balance -2.0bn vs. -2.6bn
BoC Gov. Poloz speech
Ivey PMI 49.9 vs. 56.7
Employment changes 22.8k vs. 10.4k
Unemployment rate 7.10% vs. 7.10%
Building permits m/m -19.60% vs. -3.20%

GBPUSD (1.45): GBPUSD is down -1.12% for the week in what seems like a straight fourth week of declines. Prices are trading near last year March/April lows at 1.457. Economic data from the UK was mixed with manufacturing PMI coming out soft at 51.9 while services PMI managed to meet estimates. Construction PMI was the sole data which managed to beat estimates, rising 57.8.

Manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs. 52.8
Net lending to individuals m/m 5.3bn vs. 4.9bn
M4 money supply m/m 0.40% vs. 0.50%
Construction PMI 57.8 vs. 56.1
Services PMI 55.5 vs. 55.6
Halifax HPI m/m 1.70% vs. 0.50%
Trade balance -10.6bn vs. -10.5bn

USDCHF (1.0): The Greenback gained 0.34% to the Swiss Franc this week after prices initially touched a weekly high near 1.0119 before pulling back strongly. Economic data from Switzerland this week included the manufacturing PMI was stronger at 53.1 while the Swiss unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.40%. Inflation continued to remain weak, with the monthly CPI declining -0.40% below estimates of -0.20%. The US Dollar managed to hold its ground to the Swiss Franc despite the risk aversion mood in the markets this week.

Manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs. 50.2
Foreign currency reserves 560bn vs. 563bn previously
Unemployment rate 3.40% vs. 3.40%
CPI m/m -0.40% vs. -0.20%

US Dollar Index (99): The US Dollar Index is up 0.43% by Friday’s NY session on the US jobs report. Numbers from December payrolls showed a robust hiring in the US, with the economy adding 292k new jobs above the estimates of 203k while the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0%. However, the US Dollar remains under pressure with the average wage earnings staying flat for the month. The US economic data over the week was largely mixed. While the ADP private payrolls grew 257k above estimates, factory orders plunged -0.20% while the services and manufacturing PMI remained soft. With the turmoil from China, the US Dollar saw a rather bumpy ride this week as prices touched weekly highs above 99.6 before pulling back to post a low near 98.25.

Final manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs. 51.1
ISM manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs. 49.1
Construction spending m/m -0.40% vs. 0.70%
ISM manufacturing prices 33.5 vs. 36.5
ADP private payrolls 257k vs. 193k
Trade balance -42.4bn vs. -44.0bn
Final services PMI 54.3 vs. 55.1
ISM non-manufacturing PMI 55.3 vs. 56.0
Factory orders m/m -0.20% vs. -0.20%
FOMC meeting minutes released
Weekly unemployment claims 277k vs. 276k
Average hourly earnings m/m 0.0% vs. 0.20%
Nonfarm employment change 292k vs. 203k
Unemployment rate 5.0% vs. 5.0%