The markets had a holiday shortened week last week but the week was marked with key important data from the US, UK and Japan. Closing out the week, the NZD was the top performing currency, which gained 1.72% against the US Dollar followed by the Australian dollar which closed the week with 1.44% gains and the Canadian dollar which gained 0.81%. The commodity risk currencies were clearly the top gainers last week against a weaker Greenback.
The US Dollar was the weakest, losing out to almost all of its peers. Data from the US last week saw the third quarter GDP being confirmed at 2.0% against estimates of 1.90%NZD including durable goods orders which managed to meet the estimates. With the end of the year approaching, the US Dollar saw a sell off as institutional investors start to square out their positions for the year.
Fundamentals for the Week 28/12 – 01/01
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 28-Dec | 01:50 | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | -0.10% | 1.80% |
| JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -0.40% | 1.40% | ||
| 29-Dec | 15:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance | -60.9B | -58.4B |
| 16:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 5.60% | 5.50% | |
| 17:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 93.9 | 90.4 | |
| 30-Dec | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Consumption Indicator | 1.6 | |
| GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | 0.40% | 0.10% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | 0.10% | -0.30% | |
| 11:00 | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 5.20% | 5.30% | |
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | 1.30% | 1.20% | ||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | 1.36|1.7 | ||
| 17:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 0.60% | 0.20% | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -5.9M | ||
| 31-Dec | 02:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 11:30 | GBP | Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q | -10.5B | -10.9B | |
| 15:30 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 274K | 267K | |
| 16:45 | USD | Chicago PMI | 50.4 | 48.7 | |
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -32B | ||
| 01-Jan | 03:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 49.6 |
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 |
Time: GMT+2
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
With the markets heading to the final week of the year, the data is limited and some of the markets are closed. On Monday, some of the major trading hubs remain closed with Japan’s retail sales and preliminary industrial production numbers are the only main event to look forward to. On the 29th of December markets are expected to resume trading but low trading volumes are likely to keep the markets ranging sideways. US Goods trade balance numbers are the only event due for release on the 29th. On the 30th, the US S&P/CS house price index data is due followed by the CB consumer confidence. It is unlikely to see the data playing any major impact on the markets.
On the 31st of December, data from Eurozone includes Spain’s flash CPI estimates and US pending home sales numbers. With 31st being the last working day of the year, expect to see the US Dollar continue to remain on the back foot on profit taking and squaring out of the positions ahead of the end of the year.
The markets are open on the 1st, but trading is likely to remain low. US Chicago PMI, weekly jobless claims and Australia’s private sector credit are the only main economic releases scheduled.
