Weekly Forex Forecast: November 23 – 27

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The Aussie dollar closed the week with 1.58% in gains against the Greenback marking a second straight week of rally. Prices touched a 5-week low previously before reversing off the lows. With the weekly prices forming a bullish engulfing previously the Aussie could potentially rally higher in the near term. The Kiwi dollar was the second best performing currency despite a few setbacks with the GDT posting another week of falling prices.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 20/11/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 20/11/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The Euro remained extremely bearish last week as Mario Draghi’s dovish comments on further easing in December sent the Euro down -1.12% lower. The market expectations are pricing in further additional QE in December along with rate cuts to the deposit rates which are already in negative territory.

Fundamentals for the Week 23/11 – 27/11

Date Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
23-Nov 10:00 EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.6
EUR French Flash Services PMI 52.1 52.7
10:30 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.2 52.1
EUR German Flash Services PMI 54.3 54.5
11:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.3
EUR Flash Services PMI 54.2 54.1
16:45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54 54.1
17:00 USD Existing Home Sales 5.41M 5.55M
Tentative USD Fed Announcement
24-Nov 03:35 JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.4
09:00 EUR German Final GDP q/q 0.30% 0.30%
10:15 CHF Employment Level
11:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.3 108.2
11:05 AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
13:00 GBP CBI Realized Sales 25 19
15:30 USD Prelim GDP q/q 2.00% 1.50%
USD Goods Trade Balance -61.8B -58.6B
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.20% 1.20%
USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.20% 5.10%
17:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 99.3 97.6
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 0 -1
22:30 CAD Gov Council Member Patterson Speaks
25-Nov 01:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY SPPI y/y 0.60% 0.60%
02:30 AUD Construction Work Done q/q -1.80% 1.60%
11:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 45.5K 44.5K
12:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 0.30%
12:20 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
14:30 GBP Autumn Forecast Statement
15:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.50% -0.30%
USD Unemployment Claims 273K 271K
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.10% 0.10%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.60% -1.20%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.30% 0.10%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.40% 0.10%
16:00 USD HPI m/m 0.50% 0.30%
16:45 USD Flash Services PMI 55.2 54.8
17:00 USD New Home Sales 500K 468K
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.2 93.1
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.50%
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.3M
23:45 NZD Trade Balance -1000M -1222M
26-Nov 02:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q -2.80% -4.00%
11:00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.90% 4.90%
EUR Private Loans y/y 1.20% 1.10%
14:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 9.2 9.4
15:30 CAD Corporate Profits q/q 12.90%
27-Nov 01:30 JPY Household Spending y/y 0.00% -0.40%
JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.10% -0.20%
JPY National Core CPI y/y -0.10% -0.10%
JPY Unemployment Rate 3.40% 3.40%
02:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence 2 2
09:00 EUR German Import Prices m/m -0.10% -0.70%
27th-30th GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.60%
09:45 EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.20% 0.00%
10:00 EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.50% -0.70%
11:30 GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q 0.50% 0.50%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 1.50% 1.60%
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.80% 0.90%
Tentative EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
15:30 CAD RMPI m/m 3.00%
CAD IPPI m/m -0.30%

Time: GMT+2

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

AUD: It is a slow week for the Australian dollar with lack of any major news to go by. Data this coming week includes the Private capital expenditure for the quarter which is expected to decline -2.8%, while construction work done for the quarter is expected to fall -1.8%. Besides these two main economic events, RBA Governor Stevens is scheduled to speak earlier in the week. With strong gains posted by the Aussie last week, the currency could pause its rally this week and could remain susceptible to the US Dollar strength or weakness.

CAD: There are no major economic events scheduled for the Canadian dollar this week and the currency is likely to be trading off the US Dollar’s fundamental risk events. Oil prices could also be highlighted over the week on lack of any major events that are due.

EUR: It will be a busy week for the Eurozone with various flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers due from the region. German GDP numbers are expected to show a quarterly growth of 0.3%, unchanged from the previous quarterly growth. The week ends with the ECB releasing the financial stability report. With most of the ECB speeches done with the Euro is likely to take a breather in the near term.

GBP: Data from the UK this week will see the second estimates of the third quarter GDP. Expectations are for an unchanged GDP print at 0.5%. The British Pound has managed to recover off the declines from the previous weeks and the GDP numbers, on lack of any other major economic data could be the main risk event.

JPY: Data from Japan will see the monetary policy meeting minutes being released. With the BoJ standing pat on policy, the minutes are unlikely to being any big volatility in the markets. Other data from Japan includes the unemployment rate and consumer inflation numbers on a short trading week with the Japanese markets closed on Monday.

USD: The week ahead from the US will be a busy one with the second revision to the quarterly GDP. Expectations are bullish, calling for a 2.0% increase, up from 1.5% from the first estimates. A rise in the third quarter GDP could potentially boost the Greenback in the near term. Other main events during the week includes the Fed announcement and the durable goods orders data which is expected to rebound 0.5%, after declining -0.3% previously. The US markets are closed on Thursday the 26th November on account of Thanksgiving.


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