The Aussie continued to post a second consecutive week of gains, rallying 1.29% for the week. The Kiwi came in a close second with 1.18% gains for the week as the risk off sentiment led by a weaker US Dollar gave the commodity risk currencies a boost. The FOMC’s big event saw the Fed funds rate being left unchanged leading to a weaker US Dollar for the week. The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank also left their monetary policies unchanged during this week and both the safe haven currencies managed to close with weekly gains of 0.52% and 0.32% respectively.
The single currency Euro was however, the weakest currency this week, losing -0.37% for the week despite the currency rallying against the US Dollar to briefly trade near 1.15 level of resistance before easing back lower to settle the week at 1.12947.
Fundamentals for the Week 21/09 – 25/09
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 21-Sep | 01:00 | NZD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 113 | |
| 01:45 | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | -2.70% | ||
| 02:01 | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | -0.80% | ||
| 06:00 | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 9.70% | ||
| 09:00 | EUR | German PPI m/m | -0.30% | 0.00% | |
| 13:00 | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | |||
| 15:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | 0.30% | 1.30% | |
| 17:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.50M | 5.59M | |
| 20:00 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
| 21:45 | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
| 22-Sep | 04:30 | AUD | HPI q/q | 2.50% | 1.60% |
| 05:00 | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.90% | ||
| 09:00 | CHF | Trade Balance | 2.97B | 3.74B | |
| 11:30 | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | 8.7B | -2.1B | |
| 13:00 | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | 0 | -1 | |
| 16:00 | USD | HPI m/m | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
| 17:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -7 | -7 | |
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 4 | 0 | ||
| 23-Sep | 01:30 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | ||
| 03:00 | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.20% | ||
| 04:45 | CNY | Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI | 47.6 | 47.3 | |
| 10:00 | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 48.3 | |
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 50.9 | 50.6 | ||
| 10:30 | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 53.3 | |
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 54.5 | 54.9 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | 52.3 | |
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.4 | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.80% | ||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.60% | |||
| 16:00 | CHF | SNB Quarterly Bulletin | |||
| EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | ||||
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 53 | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.1M | ||
| 19:30 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
| 24-Sep | 01:45 | NZD | Trade Balance | -875M | -649M |
| 04:35 | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.7 | |
| 07:30 | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | 0.10% | 0.30% | |
| 09:00 | EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate | 9.8 | 9.9 | |
| 11:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 107.8 | 108.3 | |
| 11:30 | GBP | BBA Mortgage Approvals | 46.3K | 46.0K | |
| 12:00 | EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | -0.30% | |
| 12:15 | EUR | Targeted LTRO | 73.8B | ||
| 15:30 | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.20% | 0.40% | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 268K | 264K | ||
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | -2.00% | 2.20% | ||
| 16:00 | EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | -4.7 | -5.1 | |
| 17:00 | USD | New Home Sales | 516K | 507K | |
| 17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 73B | ||
| 25-Sep | 00:00 | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Speaks | ||
| 02:30 | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | -0.20% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | National Core CPI y/y | -0.10% | 0.00% | ||
| 02:50 | JPY | SPPI y/y | 0.50% | 0.60% | |
| 10:00 | EUR | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||
| 11:00 | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 5.40% | 5.30% | |
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | 1.10% | 0.90% | ||
| 15:30 | USD | Final GDP q/q | 3.70% | 3.70% | |
| USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | 2.10% | 2.10% | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Services PMI | 55.5 | 56.1 | |
| 17:00 | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 87.2 | 85.7 | |
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.90% | |||
| 19:30 | EUR | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
BoC Governor Speech: Data this week from Canada is limited to the wholesale and retail sales data. But the most important will be the speech by BoC Governor Poloz due to speak on 21st September. The Bank of Canada had left interest rates unchanged at its previous meeting. However, the BoC’s CPI gauge dipped slightly lower from 2.4% to 2.1% according to data released last week. In light of the Fed standing pat on policy and the likelihood of a October/November liftoff unlikely, it will be interesting to listen to what the BoC Governor will have to say.
Eurozone Flash PMI’s and Draghi speech: Data from Eurozone this week will see the flash manufacturing PMI data. However focus is likely to be tuned to Mario Draghi’s testimony which could be used as an opportunity to possibly talk down the Euro in light of the recent appreciation. The ECB will also be conducting its targeted LTRO operations this week. The previous TLTRO saw banks take up 72.8bn of loans from the European Central Bank.
US Retail sales & Yellen Speech: The US economic calendar for the week is light in the first part but data picks up from September 24th when the monthly core durable goods orders are released. Fed chair Yellen will also be speaking during the week and the final revision to the US second quarter GDP is due for release. Expectations for the GDP data are for an unchanged print of 3.7%, which is more or less likely to be met. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak throughout the week. Considering that the Fed officials, with the exception of Fed Member Lacker, had voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged, the rhetoric from the Fed members is likely to garner some attention.
