Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 14th July

Jul 14 2015, 10:21 am
EURUSD Daily Chart - Sideways price action, 14/07

EURUSD (1.103): For the most part, EURUSD has been consolidating longer than expected. Overall, the price action is limited to the highs and lows off June 29th session of 1.1277 and 1.0948. A strong support has been established near 1.0948 below which the next major support comes in at 1.0815. Plotting a rising price channel on the daily charts, price is currently trading near the lower rail of the price channel and looks well supported (including the confluence of the horizontal support level). We therefore remain biased to see a potential move to the upside, where the top is called near 1.148 region. However, price needs to first break out from the June 29th range before we ascertain the bias. For the moment, EURUSD is likely to trade sideways until there is a clear break of either 1.1277 or 1.0948.

EURUSD Daily Chart - Sideways price action, 14/07
EURUSD Daily Chart – Sideways price action, 14/07

GBPUSD (1.558): The Cable initially broke down from the rising price channel only to reverse and is currently retesting the break out region near 1.1558, just below the major support/resistance at 1.5779 – 1.5685. In the event that price fails to clear this resistance, we can expect a fresh bout of selling that could push the currency pair lower. Support comes in at 1.51335 and 1.499 (1.5 rounded off) on break of the previous low at 1.533.

GBPUSD - Daily Chart 14/07
GBPUSD – Daily Chart 14/07

USDJPY (123.3): After the initial break towards 125.575 off the symmetrical triangle, USDJPY promptly fell back to retest the break out at 120.75 of the triangle pattern. In this process, a bullish flag has been formed, which gives a minimum measured objective for USDJPY to rally to at least 127.38 and 129.65 eventually. Price is currently price is trading near 123.305 level of support/resistance. Establishing resistance here could see USDJPY rally towards previous highs at 125.575 and onto the next identified levels. Alternatively, failure to establish support at 123.305 could turn the sentiment very bearish in USDJPY which will see a decline down to 120.75 and eventually to 118.28

USDJPY - Daily Chart, Bull Flag, 14/07
USDJPY – Daily Chart, Bull Flag, 14/07

USDCAD (1.28): USDCAD has finally reached the target objective of 1.28. Price action is currently trading near a resistance level and we expect a potential decline back to 1.2536 at the very least to establish support ahead of posting higher gains. Failure to support prices at 1.2536 will see a test down to support at 1.2383.

USDCAD - Daily Chart, Price at 1.28 resistance - 14/07
USDCAD – Daily Chart, Price at 1.28 resistance – 14/07
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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