Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Wrap Up: June 22 – 26, 2015

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AUDUSD (0.7658): AUDUSD was trading flat for the week with no major change in sentiment. At the time of writing, AUDUSD was down -1.5% for the week, trading near lows of 0.7656. Economic data from Australia was quiet with no major market moving news. House price index for the quarter rose less than expected by 1.6% below median estimates of 2.2%. The prevailing uncertainty surrounding Greece debt negotiations is potentially seeing money outflows from risky assets into safe haven currencies.

  • CB leading index m/m -0.3% vs. 0.0% previously
  • HPI q/q 1.6% vs. 2.2%

EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD was bearish early in the week before trading sideways since Tuesday. The single currency was down -1.35% at the time of writing, trading near 1.119. Greece headlines dominated the week with the Euro turning choppy on conflicting headlines. Economic data this week included flash services and manufacturing PMI which managed to rise above estimates. The Euro however shrugged off the economic data for the Greece headlines which is likely to see some kind of deal being chalked out over the weekend.

  • Eurozone consumer confidence -6 vs. 06
  • French flash manufacturing PMI 50.5 vs. 50.1
  • French flash services PMI 54.1 vs. 52.5
  • German flash manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs. 51.5
  • German flash services PMI 54.2 vs. 52.9
  • Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52
  • Eurozone flash services PMI 54.4 vs. 53.7
  • Italy retail sales m/m 0.7% vs. 0.1%
  • German Ifo business climate 107.4 vs. 108.2
  • Eurogroup meetings

NZDUSD (0.6851): The Kiwi’s decline is showing signs of easing as the currency briefly managed to stay afloat above previous yearly lows. For the week, the Kiwi was down -0.77%. There was no economic releases from New Zealand this week with the exception of the trade balance data and other second tier economic releases.

  • Westpac Consumer sentiment 113.0 vs. 117.4
  • Visitor arrivals m/m 0.1% vs. 1.5%
  • Credit card spending y/y 7.1% vs. 7.2%
  • Trade balance 350mn vs -90mn

USDJPY (123.7): The Japanese Yen was a bit volatile this week setting a weekly range of 124.376 and 122.562. For the week, USDJPY was up 0.82%. Economic data from Japan included the BoJ monthly report which did not present any surprising news bits with the exception of reduced number of monetary policy meetings from the BoJ to bring about uniformity with other central banks such as the ECB and the US Federal Reserve. Heading into the weekend, the Yen could likely be bid up should the weekend fail to see any resolution to the Greece crisis.

  • BoJ monthly report released
  • Flash manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.6
  • SPPI y/y 0.6% vs. 0.4%
  • Household spending 4.8% vs. 3.5%
  • Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.1% vs. 0.1%
  • National Core CPI y/y 0.1% vs. 0.0%
  • Unemployment rate 3.3% vs. 3.3%

USDCAD (1.236): USDCAD is looking to stabilize after last week posted a new low to 1.2128. For the week, USDCAD was up 0.75%, trading near 1.2336 and looks poised for further upside gains. There were no economic releases from Canada this week leaving most of the risks to US fundamentals.

GBPUSD (1.5725): The Pound Sterling declined close to -0.96% for the week after the Cable briefly attempted to break above previous highs at 1.59. The Pound fell from the opening highs to trade near 1.572 at the time of writing. There were no major economic releases from the UK and most of the comments from various BoE members were neutral but pointing to a possible cycle of interest rate hikes in the medium term.

  • MPC Member Cunliffe Speech
  • CBI Industrial order expectations -7 vs. 1
  • BBA Mortgage approvals 42.5k vs. 43.1k
  • CBI realized sales 29 vs. 32
  • BoE Governor Carney speech

USDCHF (0.932): USDCHF was the stronger currency pair this week having gained close to 1.74% for the week. The Greenback gained against the Swiss Franc, lifting off from the weekly opening lows near 0.91655 to post a fresh weekly high above 0.9396. SNB Chief Thomas Jordan delivered a speech and stuck to the usual narrative of an overvalued Swiss Franc in a bid to weaken the currency. The USDCHF stabilized after hitting the weekly highs, currently trading at 0.9326.

  • UBS Consumption indicator 1.73 vs. 1.67 previously
  • SNB Chairman Jordan speech

US Dollar Index (95.4): The US Dollar Index saw a bullish week with prices gains 1.2% at the time of writing. The Greenback was however consolidating for the second part of the week in what could be a bullish break out heading into next week. Economic data from the US this week included an upwardly revised Q1 GDP at -0.2%, a big change from the second revision of -0.7%. Home sales, existing and new continued to post healthy growth for the month. With US fundamentals largely stabilizing after a weak first quarter, the US Dollar is quite likely to resume its uptrend.

  • Existing home sales 5.35mn vs. 5.27mn
  • Core durable goods orders m/m 0.5% vs. 0.6%; durable goods orders -1.8% vs. -0.6%
  • HPI m/m 0.3% vs. 0.6%
  • Richmond manufacturing index 6 vs. 3
  • New home sales 546k vs. 524k
  • Final GDP q/q -0.2% vs. -0.2%
  • Final GDP price index q/q 0.0% vs. -0.1%
  • Unemployment claims 271k vs. 271k
  • Core PCE price index m/m 0.1% vs. 0.1%
  • Personal spending m/m 0.9% vs. 0.7%
  • Personal income m/m 0.5% vs. 0.6%
  • Flash services PMI 54.8 vs. 56.5
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