Global outlook dominated by good news from the US, Canada, Japan and China

The publication of the NFP report was the long awaited evidence that the US economy is able to get out of the struggle from the first quarter. Together with the 280k NFP, the Unemployment Rate increased to 5.5% (representing the number of people entering the labor force, thus reinforcing the view of a healthier economy) and the Average Hourly Earnings increased to 0.3%. The positive data help traders increase their bets on an October interest rate hike. The American dollar had an explosive reaction of appreciation on Friday. Even if the first response of the markets today may correct the Friday move, the ascending trend remains the base scenario.

Another winner in the currency markets is the Canadian dollar, which also enjoyed positive data: the Employment Change was released up to 58.9k, the Unemployment Rate stayed at 6.8% and the Labor Productivity was published at -0.1% (highlighting a possible rise in wages). The USDCAD quotation fell down to the 1.2435 support level, while a new breakdown could push prices even lower to 1.2375. Recently, Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate in an attempt to help the economy, which struggles with the low prices of oil. The publications on Friday represented a positive episode, but markets are still reluctant about the Canadian economy.

The situation became critical in terms of Greece as the Group of Seven leaders urgently called for a move which would end these dangerous negotiations. The European Parliament President, Martin Schulz, urged the Greek officials to accept a proposal by its creditors as it risks dramatic consequences, while the European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, accused the Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, of intentionally delaying a deal with creditors by distorting proposals. This tense episode risks to be reflected soon in the evolution of the Euro and the European indices.

The Japanese economy also contributes these days to the positive sentiment on the global economy as its final GDP was reported better than estimates by 1%. The yen may shortly enjoy this episode, but doubts remain over whether the momentum can be sustained. Likewise, the threat on the monetary stimulus package to be soon increased remains in effect. Technically speaking, USDJPY has undergone a major upward path, but there is still place for further appreciation to126.00 and 126.80.

The oil quotations depreciated during the NFP episode, but eventually they recovered the losses. The major trend remains descendant, but the positive data released in the US, Canada, Japan and China (Trade Balance up to 59.5 billion) may encourage a new positive episode (as the demand is thought to increase). The WTI quotation may rise back to the 59.00 and 60.00 resistance levels, while the Brent’s price may have a chance to retest the resistance regions at 63.50 and 64.20.

The OPEC’s two days meeting concludes by an agreement to maintain their production for another six months. By the next meeting the group will need to find real solutions to problem for: Iran, which looks to ramp up exports, Iraq, which wants also to increase its production volumes (Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said he expects prices and demand to rise) and Lybia which hopes to double production by the end of September.