Higher volatility; more downside pressure
On the short-term , market bounced clearly to the downside and break support and settled below the bullish channel’s support at 1.5500. while the negative effect still valid, Therefore, we keep the continuation of the bearish bias in the upcoming period, and the price needs to break 1.5200 level to confirm heading towards the extended target that reach towards 1.5140. taking into consideration that close below 1.5140 will push the price to decline towards 1.5020 then 1.4910 levels on the near basis. But this breaching for 1.5300 level will push the price to retest 1.5440 levels and it might extend to 1.5520 before any new negative attempt.
Most of the currencies are going on a stabilizing rate between certain levels to consolidate the recent strong move we have seen on the last 6 months. As we have mentioned before ; the breakout was on the downside which means further drop toward 1.42 levels for the mid-term and that means the continuation for the strong dollar across the markets.
On the long-term view : still a lower levels is expected with stabilizing near 1.30s levels , the major turning point would be the May elections – The dollar effect which mainly would move the rate ; however , the stabilization is expected because of the expectation that BoE would hike rate after the Fed expected move.
The chart analysis provided for mid-term view
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Down