Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Forecast: 20 – 24 April

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Weekly Forex Forecast for 20-24 April 2015 features the following:

The US Dollar was noticeably the weakest currency the last week with the Swiss Franc and the Canadian Dollar taking the top spots. The British Pound made a comeback this week as the currency managed to erase some of its losses from the past few weeks. However election uncertainty continues to weigh down the currency and volatility in the British Pound may pick up as the UK election date gets closer.

Figure 1: Weekly Spot FX Performance – 17/04/2015 (Source:

Figure 1: Weekly Spot FX Performance – 17/04/2015 (Source:


The US Dollar saw sharp reactionary sell offs as and when economic data disappointed. The most evident was retail sales, which failed to meet estimates but saw a rebound from the previous months, and Core CPI y/y continued to be stronger at 1.8%, yet the Dollar did not budge on the news. The coming weeks could prove to be an interesting time for the Greenback especially as seasonal tendencies are in the favor of a weaker Greenback for the coming months.

Fundamentals for the Week 20 – 24 April

Date  Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
20-Apr 01:45 NZD CPI q/q -0.20% -0.20%
02:01 GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 1.00%
02:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.60% 1.40%
09:00 EUR German PPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
13:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
17:05 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
19:30 AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
21-Apr 04:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
12:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 56 54.8
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 63.7 62.4
Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction 2.36|1.6
15:30 CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -3.10%
23:00 CAD Annual Budget Release
22-Apr 02:50 JPY Trade Balance -0.41T -0.64T
03:30 AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.30%
04:30 AUD CPI q/q 0.10% 0.20%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.60% 0.70%
05:00 CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.50%
11:30 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
12:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -37.9
EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.10%
16:00 USD HPI m/m 0.70% 0.30%
17:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -3 -4
USD Existing Home Sales 5.04M 4.88M
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M
23-Apr 01:45 NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 6.90%
04:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 2
04:35 JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.3
04:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.4 49.6
06:00 NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 5.80%
09:00 CHF Trade Balance 2.16B 2.47B
10:00 EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.4 48.8
EUR French Flash Services PMI 52.5 52.4
EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate 23.50% 23.70%
10:30 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.1 52.8
EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.6 55.4
11:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.2
EUR Flash Services PMI 54.5 54.2
11:30 GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.70%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 6.6B 6.2B
15:30 USD Unemployment Claims 290K 294K
16:45 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.7
17:00 USD New Home Sales 514K 539K
17:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 63B
24-Apr 02:50 JPY SPPI y/y 3.30% 3.30%
07:30 JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.90% 1.90%
11:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.5 107.9
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
15:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.20% -0.60%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.70% -1.10%
16:00 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -5.8 -6.3
17:30 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks


Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Australia quarterly inflation: The RBA did not cut rates and the recent jobs report was stronger. The final piece to the puzzle is this week’s quarterly CPI data which has been in a downtrend slowing down to 0.5%. A rebound or at the very least, no change to the quarterly CPI is all that is needed to seal the deal for the RBA to leave policy unchanged in May. Ahead of CPI data, the Aussie is likely to be susceptible to the RBA meeting minutes for April and there’s a speech from RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens ahead of both the events.

Eurogroup Meeting – April 24th: The Eurogroup members will meet in Riga, Latvia on April 24th and Greece tops the agenda. There have been rumors floating that the Eurozone was preparing a Grexit plan which was backtracked and these rumors continue to add to the speculation. The end of the month, Greece is expected to make another big payment and the cash-strapped country has been leaving no stone unturned to gain funding. Germany watered down any expectations from the April 24th meeting that nothing significant could come out of that meeting. The Euro is likely to keep track of the events this week and could be quite volatile.

Calm week for the Greenback: After a data heavy last week, the Greenback see’s a period of quiet with no major market moving events scheduled. The only exception being the Core durable goods orders due on Friday. Expectations are for a modest rebound after orders fell -0.6% previously. A worse than expected print could potentially see further declines in the Greenback and could possibly seal the deal for the Greenback looking for a stronger support at lower levels before it can hope to break the 100 psychological and round number resistance level.

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