The Forex daily summary for 2 April features the following key Notes:
- Australia MI inflation gauge m/m 0.4% vs. 0%
- Japan monetary base y/y 35.2% vs. 35.3%
- New Zealand ANZ commodity prices m/m 4.6% vs. 4.2% previously
- Australia trade balance -1.26bn vs. 1.28bn
- UK Construction PMI 57.8 vs. 59.7
- Canada trade balance -1bn vs. -2bn
- US trade balance -35.4bn vs.- 41.3bn
- Weekly unemployment claims 268k vs. 286k
Later
- Fed Chair Yellen speech
- US Factory orders
- FOMC Member Brainard speech
The Australian Dollar continued its second week of declines with absolutely no respite. Besides the US Dollar, the Aussie weakened dramatically against the Euro and the British Sterling as well as markets start to speculate of an RBA rate cut next Tuesday. The Kiwi dollar, while weaker, saw a more managed or modest decline with the NZDUSD currently trying to hold on to its gains after making an intraday high towards 0.748. The Japanese Yen was more stable but stronger across the board with the exception of the Euro and the US Dollar. EURJPY managed to reverse from its previous lows to trim its losses, while USDJPY was seen hovering between 119.4 and 120 levels. The range is likely to continue into tomorrow’s NFP release.
The European trading session was light with the UK’s construction PMI data which fell below expectations, falling to 57.8 from 60.1 previously and below the market consensus. The Pound was however mixed with the GBPUSD still trading practically sideways with no clear direction being set in place as yet. At the time of writing, GBPUSD was seen weakening from the 1.482 levels in what could be a possible expansion of the range of 1.495 through 1.4757.
EURUSD was seen attempting to rally after the pair found support near 1.0768 briefly taking the Euro to intraday highs of 1.08 levels. Price action is currently testing for support near 1.08 and if successful could see its first resistance near 1.085 followed by a move higher, attempting another test to 1.10.
The US trading session saw the release of trade balance data from the US and Canada along with the weekly unemployment claims, which saw a print of 268k against expectations of an increase to 286k. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the data but the Greenback is starting to stabilize from the recent declines after topping out near 98.90 levels.
Later today, Fed Chair, Janet Yellen is expected to give a speech followed by the US Factory orders are also due later this evening.
Crude Oil futures saw a choppy trading session as the Iran nuclear negotiations continue with WTI Crude briefly touching %52.4 before declining to lows of $47.28. Trading volumes are expected to slow down as the major markets are closed on account of ‘Good Friday’ tomorrow as well as on Monday. The NFP data will be the only major release for tomorrow which could see some major volatility and choppy price action in the markets.
