Weekly Market Outlook

Posted on
November 24th

Weekly Market Outlook for the week of November 10th

With the major events done with last week, this week we head into a relatively quiet phase before activity picks up towards the mid-week with focus on Eurozone, UK’s monthly labor markets and retail sales from the US.

Fundamentals for the Week 10 – 14 November

Date Event Estimates
10 November China CPI y/y
China PPI y/y
Italian Industrial production m/m 0.2%
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence -6.9
Canada housing starts 200k
11 November Australia HPI q/q 1.6%
Japan consumer confidence 40.6
Japan, economy watchers sentiment 49.2
RBNZ Financial stability report
RBNZ Gov. Wheeler Speech
12 November German WPI m/m 0.2%
UK Claimant count change -24.9k
UK unemployment rate 5.9%
Eurozone industrial production m/m 0.6%
BoE inflation report
US Wholesale inventories 0.3%
13 November Japan PPI y/y 3.4%
China industrial production y/y 8%
China retail sales y/y 11.6%
German Final CPI m/m -0.3%
French Final CPI m/m -0.1%
14 November French Prelim GDP q/q 0.1%
German Prelim GDP q/q 0.1%
Italy Prelim GDP q/q -0.1%
Eurozone Final CPI y/y 0.4%
Eurozone Flash GDP q/q 0.1%
Eurozone Final Core CPI y/y 0.7%
Canada manufacturing sales m/m 1.3%
US Core retail sales m/m 0.2%
US retail sales m/m 0.2%
US UoM consumer sentiment 87.3

 

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

  • UK’s monthly labor market data is set to post another month of solid performance with the monthly claimant count change expected to decline by -24.9k along with the average hourly earnings set to rise 0.9% while unemployment rate is expected to improve to 5.9%. BoE Governor Carney is also set to deliver a speech along with the BoE’s inflation report, which is expected to show inflation remaining subdued in the UK. The Pound has been battered recently, especially against the rising US Dollar. However the Cable has firmly stuck to its ground near the 1.59 – 1.58 levels with 1.60 coming in as a major resistance level now.
  • There is a host of GDP and inflation data from the Eurozone towards the latter half of the week with Germany, France and Italy GDP and inflation readings on the tap. The Eurozone’s final CPI estimates are also expected to be in line with the previous flash estimates with the core CPI y/y remaining at 0.7%. It must be recollected that the ECB had last week reiterated its commitments towards more monetary easing should the need arise. With inflation posing a major threat to the Eurozone, the CPI readings will make for an important fundamental event to watch out for during this week.
  • Retail sales data from the US and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment will be the final two important fundamental events out of the US to wrap up the week. Retail sales which has been relatively weak the past months is expected to rise 0.2% while the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment in the US is expected to remain positive, supportive of an upbeat economic outlook from the US.

FX Majors Weekly Pivots

  R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
EURUSD 1.2791 1.2684 1.2572 1.2464 1.2352 1.2245 1.2133
GBPUSD 1.6239 1.6132 1.6005 1.5897 1.577 1.5663 1.5536
USDCAD 1.1648 1.1557 1.1445 1.1354 1.1242 1.1151 1.1039
USDJPY 118.924 117.258 115.904 114.238 112.884 111.218 109.864
USDCHF 0.9901 0.9821 0.974 0.966 0.9578 0.9498 0.9416
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