Fundamental Analysis

The key data releases for next week will centre around China, as it reports its trade balance and is the first major economy to post Q1 GDP figures. This will provide valuable market insight into how the war in the Middle East is impacting…
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Markets rallied on Wednesday after both the US and Iran said they'd agreed to a ceasefire to negotiate terms to end the war in Iran. Risk trades unwound quickly, pushing stock markets higher, the dollar lower and supporting gold. Crude…
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There are two key data points that are shaping the behaviour of the dollar and gold this week. The first is on Wednesday, with the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which will provide insight into how the Fed will interpret…
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After posting the highest monthly gain ever in March, crude prices closed out Q1 almost doubling. March also saw the highest one-day jump in crude prices ever recorded. And that includes the massive 1970 oil embargo crisis, and both of the…
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The NZD has been one of the most affected currencies by the sudden spike in fuel prices, and it seems the RBNZ isn't in a position to provide support. The economic underperformance before the outbreak of the war puts the central bank in a…
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This month's release of the all-important NFP figures will be a bit unusual. Most global markets will be closed on Friday, when the data is released, so there won't be a knee-jerk reaction to the figures. Traders will have all weekend to…
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The war in the Middle East has been a paradigm shift for Forex markets. Beyond the obvious concern about a supply shock from energy and geopolitical uncertainty that has taken over the headlines, there is a more fundamental issue affecting…
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According to official stats released early on Tuesday, factory activity in China actually increased in March. This came as a surprise to markets, which were expecting a contraction. It is particularly notable because China is the world's…
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Tuesday sees potentially the most important data release for the most traded Forex pair: the Eurozone March CPI. That's because there is considerable disagreement in the market over what to expect from the ECB next month, and the inflation…
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The biggest March forex moves have been shaped by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, affecting not only currencies but also commodities. Central bank decisions have also been influenced by the situation, adding to market uncertainty.…
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