Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 10/May

May 10, 5:33 am
Technical

EURUSD (1.137)

EURUSD – Price trading at 1.137 Support
EURUSD – Price trading at 1.137 Support
  1. EURUSD failed to capitalize on its strong momentum led gains which saw prices touch 1.160 last week
  2. The resulting declines saw EURUSD fall back to familiar support at 1.1373
  3. The bullish flag pattern remains in play with the current declines retesting the breakout level
  4. Minor resistance at 1.1465 needs to be cleared for another attempt to the upside, failing which the bullish flag pattern would be invalidated, which could see strong declines that could potentially break the current support for a move lower
  5. Next lower support is seen at 1.1220 followed by 1.1050
  6. Support: 1.137 – 1.132, Resistance: 1.1465 – 1.1470

USDJPY (108.8)

USDJPY – Potential change of trend, to be validated with a higher low
USDJPY – Potential change of trend, to be validated with a higher low
  • USDJPY managed to clear the resistance at 108.180 – 107.70 after prices fell to 105 – 106 levels last week
  • The current recovery is however under risk with a hidden divergence on the lower time frames
  • A higher low is needed to validate further upside, which we expect will occur near the broken resistance at 108.180 – 107.70 to establish support
  • A potential uptrend is likely taking place for USDJPY to test 111.0 resistance to the upside
  • Support: 108.180 – 107.70, Resistance: 111.0

GBPUSD (1.44)

GBPUSD – Resistance failure could push price to the downside for 1.42
GBPUSD – Resistance failure could push price to the downside for 1.42
  • GBPUSD failed to rally after clearing resistance at 1.451 – 1.447 and closed below this level instead
  • Further downside could see GBPUSD fall to 1.42 – 1.41 support in the near term if the resistance holds the rallies
  • This move could invalidate the inverse head and shoulders pattern which could see a bearish momentum push prices lower in the near term
  • A break below 1.41 could see GBPUSD test the previous lows near the 1.39 levels
  • Support: 1.42, Resistance: 1.4477 – 1.451

USDCAD (1.29)

USDCAD – Retracement likely ahead of a bullish rally
USDCAD – Retracement likely ahead of a bullish rally
  • USDCAD posted a strong reversal off the support near 1.26 – 1.2525
  • Price action cleared the minor support at 1.2865 but is now at resistance of 1.2985 – 1.2923
  • The hidden divergence on the Stochastics indicates a near-term pullback
  • A possible higher low in prices above 1.26 could confirm the bullish view for a move to 1.2985 – 1.2923 followed by 1.3136
  • Support: 1.26 – 1.2525, Resistance: 1.2985 – 1.2923

USDCHF (0.972)

USDCHF – Possible start of an uptrend
USDCHF – Possible start of an uptrend
  • USDCHF saw a sharp reversal from below 0.954 support with a long legged doji pattern
  • Price action has been in a steady uptrend since then
  • A pullback could see USDCHF retest the minor support at 0.96 – 0.9618 ahead of further moves to the upside
  • Resistance is seen at 0.9848 – 0.9928 which could be the likely target if the current pullback holds at 0.9618 – 0.96 support
  • Failure to hold the dips near 0.96 could see bearish momentum send USDCHF lower to 0.954
  • Support: 0.96 – 0.9618, Resistance: 0.9848
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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