Forex Trading Library

The Week Ahead – Patience Is Key

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USDCAD advances as BoC may hold

The Canadian dollar retreats as the Bank of Canada may keep its rates unchanged. The Q2 GDP report showed a sharp slowdown in economic growth, which could lead policymakers to pause the hike campaign despite a recent uptick in inflation. Instead, they might signal to hold the benchmark rate at a 22-year-high of 5.0% for the foreseeable future. Traders would pay close attention to the jobs data following a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.5% in July. Another sign of loosening of the job market could convince the central bank to stay on the sidelines. The pair is testing the key hurdle of 1.3650 and 1.3380 is a fresh support.

AUDUSD slips as RBA to stay put

The Australian dollar weakens as traders see a slim chance of another rate hike by the year’s end. Consumer price growth dropped to a 17-month low in July, confirming that the annual inflation rate is trending down. The market now believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia would pause its rate hikes again this week. In the meantime, China’s manufacturing activity showed a contraction for five months in a row and market participants remain wary about the effectiveness of Beijing’s cosmetic stimulus moves without any drastic measure to deal with mounting debts. The pair is heading towards 0.6280 with 0.6600 as a fresh resistance.

UKOIL rebounds as demand prospect brightens

Brent crude rises back in the hope that the near end of global tightening would shore up demand. Even though soft Chinese PMI and lower US GDP growth might keep the bulls in check, the prospect of major central banks reaching their terminal rates soon fuels the optimism that the worst is behind. On the supply side, a large drawdown in US stockpiles and speculations that Saudi Arabia and Russia would extend their output cuts into October provide a floor to the price. In Gabon, an OPEC member, a military coup also stirred up fears of supply disruptions. The price is moving towards 92.00 after bouncing off 82.00.

NAS 100 recovers as market turns risk-on

The Nasdaq 100 rallies as risk sentiment improves over signs of easing in the US job market. July’s inflation gauge PCE has come out without surprise, reinforcing the optimism that the Federal Reserve might pause its monetary tightening after lifting interest rates to a 22-year high. Further softening of the labour market would signal that policymakers’ hard pills have worked their magic. Bad news is indeed good news. As Treasury yields recede from their recent peaks, growth stocks may make back their previous losses and spearhead risk assets’ rebound. The index is testing 15900 and 14670 is the immediate support.

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