For traders looking to see where the markets might be headed for the rest of the month, tomorrow’s data might be the sentiment catalyst. PMIs are the freshest data, and they are especially relevant now as investors grade the impact of central bank policy on the economy.
If we get a rash of good PMI data, it could propel risk sentiment higher, depress the dollar and support emerging markets. If flash PMIs were to disappoint, then the downturn in the markets seen at the end of last week could accelerate. Keep in mind this is preliminary data, and at the start of next month there could be revisions.
What to look out for:
The consensus is for a mixed bag down under, but in general staying in expansion. Commodity prices have been on the back foot, but the major exporter to China appears to continue to outperform its global peers. Australian Manufacturing PMI is expected to slip a bit to 55.0 from 55.7, while services PMI is expected to advance by the minimum to 51.0 from 50.9 prior.
As usual, being the first to report out of the shared economy, it could set the tone for Europe. With energy prices increasing faster in France than in Germany, worries about industrial performance through the winter have been rising. French Manufacturing PMI is expected to slip further into contraction down to 48.9 from 49.5 previously. Services PMI is expected to remain in positive but decline as well to 52.5 from 53.2.
If the largest economy in the EuroZone has a different result than France’s, it could shift market sentiment. However, growing concerns over energy supply is expected to keep optimism under pressure. Just this morning it was announced that Nord Stream 1 would be shut again for 3 days, after German officials confirmed nuclear power plants wouldn’t be extended. German Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall lower than France’s to 48.3 compared to 49.3 prior. Services is also expected to fall further into contraction at 49.0 from 49.7 prior.
Likely won’t impact markets unless other countries manage to substantially differ from the two largest economies. Manufacturing PMI is expected to be further in contraction to 49.0 from 49.9, while Services PMI is expected to stay in expansion by barely at 50.5 compared to 51.2.
Britain is expected to keep challenging the trend in Europe and stay substantially in expansion despite officials worried that a recession is imminent. While the UK is expected to face cost of living pressure from energy supply issues, there is yet no expected need to plan for industrial shutdowns as is the case on the Continent. Nevertheless, optimism is expected to wane a bit. Manufacturing PMI is forecast to come in at 51.3 compared to 52.1 prior and Services PMI is forecast to slip to 52.0 from 52.6 prior.
The US is expected to buck the trend, with manufacturing staying in expansion while services improves but stays in contraction. American industries might be expected to pick up some of the potential impact from energy issues in Europe. But tighter Fed policy and potential NBER might officially declare a recession, it could weigh on consumer sentiment, even as retail sales continue to slide. Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 51.9 compared to 52.2 prior, a minor reduction in optimism. Services PMI is expected to advance substantially to 49.1 compared to 47.3 prior.